Packers @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (NFC Divisional Playoffs, 2023)

Sat, Jan 20, 2024, 8:15 PM ESTNFC Divisional Playoffs · at San Francisco 49ers

Weather at kickoff56°F7 mphgusts 14Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

10-8 · Power #10

final

Final

San Francisco 49ers

12-5 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

SF -10.5

✓ GB W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 20–30 SF

✓ SF (83%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -10.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSF -10.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -10.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 10.5-point home favorite against GB, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 24–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 50.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 48%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 7.8 against an average line of 10.2; 41.2 points a game (usually 46.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs JAX 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	27–20	L	U52.5
Very close	KC vs JAX 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-9.5	27–17	W	U51
Close	KC vs SEA 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar total & spread	-10	24–10	W	U50
Close	NO vs CHI 2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-11	21–9	W	U48
Close	KC vs ATL 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & season form	-11	17–14	L	U54
Close	KC vs NE 2020 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-11	26–10	W	U48.5
Close	KC vs CAR 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-10	33–31	L	O52
Close	DAL vs DEN 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-10	16–30	L	U50
Close	GB vs CAR 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & season form	-9.5	24–16	L	U53
Close	TB vs NYG 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-10.5	30–10	W	U50

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB LLWWW	8-6	57%	4-4	5-2
SF LWLWL	5-7	42%	0-5	5-7

Venue/role: GB away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB OOOUO	8-6	57%	10-8
SF UOOUO	7-5	58%	12-5

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 40% of games with totals 47.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
SF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

GB 13–8 SF GB leads · 21 games since 1999 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+5.2 →+0.9▼ 4.3#11

SF+7.9 →+7.0▼ 0.9#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotWC

Longer bar = better

Offense

SF better ▶

#22

Defense

SF better ▶

+0.1 #15

Turnovers

SF better ▶

+0.6 #6

61 plays #25

Pace

Even

60 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #8	17.5 #3	SF
Yards / play	5.69 #7	4.98 #7	Even
EPA / play	+0.08 #4	−0.08 #7	Even
Success rate	45% #8	42% #11	Even

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	28.9 #2	21.2 #12	SF
Yards / play	6.61 #1	5.40 #20	SF
EPA / play	+0.17 #1	+0.01 #24	SF
Success rate	51% #1	46% #30	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	4.7 #14	6.2 #23	10.9 #16	7.2 #1	5.9 #18	13.1 #4
SF allowed	3.7 #11	5.6 #7	9.4 #5	4.6 #19	3.5 #1	8.2 #6

SF scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.8 #3	8.9 #6	15.7 #3	5.7 #7	7.5 #5	13.2 #3
GB allowed	3.6 #9	6.2 #10	9.8 #10	5.3 #25	6.2 #15	11.4 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.