Lions @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (NFC Championship, 2023)

Sun, Jan 28, 2024, 6:30 PM ESTNFC Championship · at San Francisco 49ers

Weather at kickoff68°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Detroit Lions

14-5 · Power #6

final

Final

San Francisco 49ers

13-5 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

SF -7.5

✓ DET W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 23–30 SF

✓ SF (75%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -7.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSF -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 57% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -7.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 7.5-point home favorite against DET, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 34–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.2 against an average line of 6.9; 53.6 points a game (usually 47.9). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAR vs TEN 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	16–28	L	U53
Very close	DAL vs GB 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	32–48	L	O52
Very close	KC vs CIN 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	24–27	L	U54.5
Very close	BUF vs IND 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	27–24	L	O50.5
Very close	TB vs ATL 2020 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	44–27	W	O51
Close	TB vs MIN 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-7	26–14	W	U52.5
Close	KC vs CLE 2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-8	22–17	L	U55.5
Close	DAL vs ARI 2021 · Week 17 · close · similar total & rest	-6	22–25	L	U52.5
Close	KC vs LV 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	30–29	L	O51.5
Close	BAL vs TEN 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-6	24–30	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WWWLW	9-5	64%	5-2	1-1
SF WLWLL	5-8	38%	0-6	5-8

Venue/role: DET away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OUOUO	9-5	64%	14-5
SF OOUOU	7-6	54%	13-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
SF	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DET 2–10 SF SF leads · 12 games since 2001 · DET has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.7 →+3.1▲ 1.4#6

SF+7.9 →+6.9▼ 1.0#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotDIV

DET

Longer bar = better

Offense

SF better ▶

#22

Defense

SF better ▶

+0.1 #16

Turnovers

SF better ▶

+0.7 #2

66 plays #3

Pace

◀ DET faster

60 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Even matchup

	DET off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	27.2 #5	17.7 #3	Even
Yards / play	5.89 #3	5.00 #7	Even
EPA / play	+0.08 #6	−0.08 #6	Even
Success rate	47% #5	42% #11	DET

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	28.6 #3	23.2 #23	SF
Yards / play	6.55 #1	5.68 #28	SF
EPA / play	+0.17 #1	−0.01 #21	SF
Success rate	51% #1	43% #16	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	6.7 #2	8.1 #8	14.8 #4	4.4 #15	8.0 #3	12.4 #7
SF allowed	3.7 #11	5.5 #5	9.2 #3	5.2 #24	3.3 #1	8.6 #7

SF scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.4 #3	8.8 #5	15.2 #3	5.8 #4	7.6 #4	13.4 #1
DET allowed	4.4 #19	5.9 #9	10.3 #12	6.4 #32	6.2 #16	12.6 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.