Sun, Feb 11, 2024, 6:30 PM ESTSuper Bowl LVIII · Neutral site
Closing spread
SF -2
✓ KC W
Total
47
Push · 47 pts
Model before kickoff
SF 24–22 KC
✗ SF (58%) lost
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseSF -2
Total47
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseSF -2
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close47
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseSF -2
Total47
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 4 games most like 
SF as a 2-point neutral-site favorite against KC, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 1 went over the total.
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This game: KC won 25–22 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 4 similar games. 47 points landed on 47, as in 0 of 4.
Favorite won
2 of 450%
Normal range · usually 57%
Favorite covered
1 of 425%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
1 of 425%
Normal range · usually 45%
Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 0.5 against an average line of 2.5; 47 points a game (usually 45.1). When games like this go over ›
All 4 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |  PHI vs  KC2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest |
-1.5 | 35–38 | L | O51.5 |
| Loose |  LAR vs  CIN2021 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form |
-4.5 | 23–20 | L | U49 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & spread |
-1 | 14–21 | L | U51 |
| Loose |  TB vs  SEA2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & total |
-3 | 21–16 | W | U45 |
MIAHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
Slight Kansas City Chiefs ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Kansas City Chiefs 4-0 ATS as an underdog
Covering consistently in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 81-81 (50%)
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
In 81 games with totals 44–50, 49% went over; 0% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
| KC | 7-3 70% | 6-3-1 67% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
The series
SF 3–7 KC
KC leads · 10 games since 2000 · KC has won the last 5 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
SF+7.9 →+6.7▼ 1.2#1
KC−1.7 →+4.3▲ 6.0#5
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotCONF
SFLonger bar = better
KC#1
Offense
◀ SF better#12
#7
Defense
Even#5
+0.6 #3
Turnovers
◀ SF better−0.5 #25
61 plays #26
Pace
KC faster ▶64 plays #14
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When SF has the ball| SF off | KC def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 28.9 #2 | 16.8 #2 | Even |
| Yards / play | 6.54 #1 | 4.76 #5 | Even |
| EPA / play | +0.18 #1 | −0.08 #6 | SF |
| Success rate | 51% #1 | 40% #6 | SF |
When KC has the ball| KC off | SF def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 22.1 #15 | 18.4 #3 | SF |
| Yards / play | 5.54 #9 | 5.07 #8 | Even |
| EPA / play | +0.03 #10 | −0.07 #7 | Even |
| Success rate | 44% #12 | 42% #11 | Even |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
SF scoring against the KC defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF scored | 6.1 #4 | 8.7 #5 | 14.8 #4 | 6.4 #2 | 7.7 #4 | 14.1 #1 |
| KC allowed | 3.2 #5 | 6.8 #14 | 9.9 #10 | 3.1 #5 | 3.7 #3 | 6.8 #1 |
KC scoring against the SF defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC scored | 4.8 #14 | 9.7 #2 | 14.4 #6 | 4.0 #22 | 3.6 #32 | 7.6 #28 |
| SF allowed | 4.2 #18 | 5.7 #7 | 9.9 #9 | 4.9 #21 | 3.5 #1 | 8.5 #7 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
SF14d bye
KC14d bye
Even
Tempo
Average 124 plays
slowavg 126fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week