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NFL · 2026

NFL Week 7 games

FinalCurrentUpcomingWeek 7: 1st-half lines & halftime results ›Spread edge and Total edge = our projection vs the market ⓘ · Trend = this season’s results
1 finalFavorites 1-0 ATS0 upsetsO/U 1-0Model Favorite 1-0Week in numbers ›

Week in numbers

Tap a number to filter the games below
Games141 final · 13 to play
Favorites ATS1-0100% covered
Upsets0outright
Over / Under1-0100% over
Model Favorite1-0100% won
Totals moved 1+ ptTap to filter
Moved up5 4 not final or push
Over1 100%Under0 0%
Moved down8 of 14 games
Ratings disagree with the opening line by 2+ pts
TB @ CARSun 1:00 PM
Toward model
RatingsCAROpen+1.5Now-3Gap6.8Closed4.5 of 6.8
DEN @ ARISun 4:05 PM
Toward model
RatingsARIOpen+7.5Now+4.5Gap5.1Closed3 of 5.1
KC @ SEASun 8:20 PM
Toward model
RatingsKCOpen+3Now+2.5Gap4.0Closed0.5 of 4.0
CLE @ TENSun 1:00 PM
At the model
RatingsCLEOpen+2.5Now-2.5Gap5.0Closed5 of 5.0
DAL @ PHIMon 8:15 PM
At the model
RatingsDALOpen+3Now-4.5Gap3.5Closed3.5 of 3.5
IND @ MINSun 1:00 PM
At the model
RatingsMINOpen-3Now-6.5Gap3.1Closed3.1 of 3.1
CIN @ BALSun 1:00 PM
At the model
RatingsCINOpen+3.5Now-1.5Gap2.4Closed2.4 of 2.4
LAR @ LVSun 4:25 PM
At the model
RatingsLVOpen+7.5Now+3Gap2.3Closed2.3 of 2.3
In 2025–2026, with a 2+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 60.5% of the 124 games where the line moved (160 at that gap); those teams covered 46.3% vs the opener, below the 52.4% break-even. How we tested this
Did the team the spread moved toward cover? ATS vs the closing line, by how far it moved
Moved towardThis week20262024–2026
Any move
1–0100%13 to play
36–40–447%
229–252–448%
1.5+ pts
1–0100%11 to play
27–24–253%
116–117–250%
3+ pts
—8 to play
18–17–151%
56–58–149%
5+ pts
—4 to play
4–736%
17–1652%
7+ pts
—1 to play
1–325%
2–722%
Covered–didn’t–push; % leaves out pushes and is grey under 10 games; green or red from 10 games. ClickTap a row or count to filter.
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Thursday, Oct 22

1
Final · Non-conf
New England Patriots
4-2 · #7
24
Chicago Bears
4-2 · #4
30
Spread
CHI -3
✓ CHI W ATS
Total
50.5 ▲3
▲ Over 54 · Q4
Projected
22–25
✓ CHI won
Trend: CHI ATS ✓Trend: Over ✓ Model: NE by 5.5 ✗ Model: Under 4 ✗ Cover settled: Q1

Sunday, Oct 25

12
Neutral
Pittsburgh Steelers
4-2 · #17
-3
New Orleans Saints
2-4 · #29
+3
Spread
PIT -3
↗ 0.5 toward PIT
Total
44.5 ▲2
Over 0.5
Spread edge
NO by 0.5
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: PIT ATSTrend: Over
Non-conf
San Francisco 49ers
6-0 · #3
-2.5
Atlanta Falcons
2-4 · #18
+2.5
Spread
SF -2.5
↗ 2 toward ATL
Total
49.5 ▲2
Under 2.5
Spread edge
SF by 4
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: SF ATSTrend: Over
Non-conf
Cleveland Browns
4-2 · #30
-2.5
Tennessee Titans
1-5 · #32
+2.5
Spread
CLE -2.5
↗ 5 toward CLE
Total
37.5 ▼3
model 37.5
Spread edge
Even
matches market
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: CLE ATSTrend: Under
Non-conf
Indianapolis Colts
2-4 · #21
+6.5
Minnesota Vikings
5-0 · #8
-6.5
Spread
MIN -6.5
↗ 3.5 toward MIN
Total
41.5 ▼6
Over 2
Spread edge
IND by 0.5
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: MIN ATSTrend: Under
Division
Miami Dolphins
0-5 · #31
+4.5
New York Jets
2-4 · #27
-4.5
Spread
NYJ -4.5
↗ 2 toward NYJ
Total
39.5 ▼2
Over 2
Spread edge
MIA by 1
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: NYJ ATSTrend: Under
Division
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1-5 · #19
+3
Carolina Panthers
3-2 · #13
-3
Spread
CAR -3
↗ 4.5 toward CAR
Total
44.5 ▼1
Under 0.5
Spread edge
CAR by 2.5
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: CAR ATS QB
Division
Cincinnati Bengals
3-2 · #15
-1.5
Baltimore Ravens
4-2 · #10
+1.5
Spread
CIN -1.5
↗ 5 toward CIN
Total
48.5 ▼4
Over 1
Spread edge
BAL by 2.5
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: Under QB
Non-conf
New York Giants
3-2-1 · #22
+10.5
Houston Texans
2-4 · #11
-10.5
Spread
HOU -10.5
↗ 5 toward HOU
Total
42.5 ▼1
Over 1.5
Spread edge
NYG by 3
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: NYG ATS
Non-conf
Denver Broncos
4-2 · #16
-4.5
Arizona Cardinals
2-4 · #28
+4.5
Spread
DEN -4.5
↗ 3 toward ARI
Total
43.5
Over 0.5
Spread edge
ARI by 2
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Division
Green Bay Packers
4-2 · #14
+3
Detroit Lions
3-2 · #12
-3
Spread
DET -3
↗ 1.5 toward DET
Total
53.5 ▲3
Under 3.5
Spread edge
GB by 1
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: Over
Non-conf
Los Angeles Rams
2-4 · #5
-3
Las Vegas Raiders
3-3 · #23
+3
Spread
LAR -3
↗ 4.5 toward LV
Total
48.5 ▲2
Under 0.5
Spread edge
LAR by 2
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: LV ATSTrend: Over
Non-conf
Kansas City Chiefs
5-0 · #2
+2.5
Seattle Seahawks
3-3 · #1
-2.5
Spread
SEA -2.5
↗ 0.5 toward KC
Total
42.5 ▼3
model 42.5
Spread edge
KC by 3.5
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: KC ATSTrend: Under QB

Monday, Oct 26

1
Division
Dallas Cowboys
2-4 · #20
-4.5
Philadelphia Eagles
2-4 · #24
+4.5
Spread
DAL -4.5
↗ 7.5 toward DAL
Total
44.5 ▼4
Over 2.5
Spread edge
PHI by 4
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
Trend: Under
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StatusMatchupSpreadMoveTotalModelSignalDetails
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Hover a column name for what it means. Records are before kickoff; #N = power rank. Data signal badges: green = ATS, teal = Over, purple = Under; solid = moderate or strong lean (blue left edge on the row); ✓/✗ = how the lean did. ↗ Line toward model the line (or total) has moved toward the model's pick since the open; hover it for how such picks have done. small sample · QB ⓘ quarterback on the injury report (hover or tap it to see who). In our 2023–26 backtest, moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) and total leans 21-24 (47%), so treat them as context, not picks.
Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total