Does the side the model likes on the total (Over or Under) cash?
NFL games from 2023 to 2026, graded against the closing line. Pick a question, narrow it with the filters, and read the hit rate against break-even.
Model side cashed
49.7%
of the model’s total picks cashed
Within the margin of error of break-even ⓘ35%break-even 52.4%70%
408–413–4 record (pushes last)
825 games
46–53% 95% range
821 decided games · 2023–2026 · every game with a signal
By season
Is it the same every year?
| Season | Games | Record | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 211 | 100–107–4 | 48.3% |
| 2024 | 264 | 138–126 | 52.3% |
| 2025 | 263 | 139–124 | 52.9% |
| 2026 so far | 87 | 31–56 | 35.6% |
By total edge size
Bands of edge, and how it did at that size and up
| Edge size | Games | Record | Hit rate | And up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1.5 | 313 | 159–153–1 | 51.0% | 49.7% 821 |
| 2–3.5 | 277 | 131–145–1 | 47.5% | 48.9% 509 |
| 4–5.5 | 114 | 60–54 | 52.6% | 50.6% 233 |
| 6+ | 121 | 58–61–2 | 48.7% | 48.7% 119 |
825 games
Newest first · showing 50. Tap a game for its card.
| Game | Closing | Total edge | Result | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 7 CHI -3 · 50.5 · final 24–30 |
CHI -3 · 50.5 | Under 50.5 model 46.5 · edge 4 | L O | 24–30 |
2026 · Week 6 SF -7.5 · 51.5 · final 17–23 |
SF -7.5 · 51.5 | Under 51.5 model 45.5 · edge 6 | W U | 17–23 |
2026 · Week 6 DAL -1.5 · 54.5 · final 13–23 |
DAL -1.5 · 54.5 | Under 54.5 model 49.5 · edge 5 | W U | 13–23 |
2026 · Week 6 BUF -5.5 · 54.5 · final 33–30 |
BUF -5.5 · 54.5 | Under 54.5 model 51.5 · edge 3 | L O | 33–30 |
2026 · Week 6 LAR -13.5 · 51.5 · final 18–16 |
LAR -13.5 · 51.5 | Under 51.5 model 49 · edge 2.5 | W U | 18–16 |
2026 · Week 6 CHI -1.5 · 50.5 · final 31–23 |
CHI -1.5 · 50.5 | Under 50.5 model 48 · edge 2.5 | L O | 31–23 |
2026 · Week 6 BAL -3 · 40.5 · final 10–13 |
BAL -3 · 40.5 | Over 40.5 model 41 · edge 0.5 | L U | 10–13 |
2026 · Week 6 IND -6.5 · 43.5 · final 26–20 |
IND -6.5 · 43.5 | Over 43.5 model 44 · edge 0.5 | W O | 26–20 |
2026 · Week 6 NE -7.5 · 42.5 · final 19–26 |
NE -7.5 · 42.5 | Under 42.5 model 42 · edge 0.5 | L O | 19–26 |
2026 · Week 6 NO -1.5 · 46.5 · final 34–27 |
NO -1.5 · 46.5 | Under 46.5 model 44.5 · edge 2 | L O | 34–27 |
2026 · Week 6 CAR -3 · 39.5 · final 25–14 |
CAR -3 · 39.5 | Over 39.5 model 41.5 · edge 2 | L U | 25–14 |
2026 · Week 6 PIT -2.5 · 37.5 · final 26–19 |
PIT -2.5 · 37.5 | Over 37.5 model 40.5 · edge 3 | W O | 26–19 |
2026 · Week 6 JAX -2.5 · 42.5 · final 34–31 |
JAX -2.5 · 42.5 | Under 42.5 model 39.5 · edge 3 | L O | 34–31 |
2026 · Week 5 LAR -3.5 · 55.5 · final 37–34 |
LAR -3.5 · 55.5 | Under 55.5 model 49.5 · edge 6 | L O | 37–34 |
2026 · Week 5 DET -4.5 · 55.5 · final 45–21 |
DET -4.5 · 55.5 | Under 55.5 model 51.5 · edge 4 | L O | 45–21 |
2026 · Week 5 SEA -3 · 46.5 · final 32–29 |
SEA -3 · 46.5 | Under 46.5 model 43.5 · edge 3 | L O | 32–29 |
2026 · Week 5 DEN -3 · 42.5 · final 23–17 |
DEN -3 · 42.5 | Under 42.5 model 39 · edge 3.5 | W U | 23–17 |
2026 · Week 5 CHI -1.5 · 46.5 · final 7–31 |
CHI -1.5 · 46.5 | Under 46.5 model 45.5 · edge 1 | W U | 7–31 |
2026 · Week 5 HOU -6.5 · 37.5 · final 26–3 |
HOU -6.5 · 37.5 | Over 37.5 model 40.5 · edge 3 | L U | 26–3 |
2026 · Week 5 CIN -7.5 · 45.5 · final 31–24 |
CIN -7.5 · 45.5 | Under 45.5 model 44.5 · edge 1 | L O | 31–24 |
2026 · Week 5 NE -8.5 · 51.5 · final 17–45 |
NE -8.5 · 51.5 | Under 51.5 model 42 · edge 9.5 | L O | 17–45 |
2026 · Week 5 MIN -2.5 · 41.5 · final 23–13 |
MIN -2.5 · 41.5 | Over 41.5 model 43 · edge 1.5 | L U | 23–13 |
2026 · Week 5 NYJ -2.5 · 38.5 · final 12–17 |
NYJ -2.5 · 38.5 | Over 38.5 model 39.5 · edge 1 | L U | 12–17 |
2026 · Week 5 PIT -3 · 42.5 · final 22–34 |
PIT -3 · 42.5 | Over 42.5 model 44.5 · edge 2 | W O | 22–34 |
2026 · Week 5 WSH -3.5 · 41.5 · final 27–27 |
WSH -3.5 · 41.5 | Over 41.5 model 43.5 · edge 2 | W O | 27–27 |
2026 · Week 5 JAX -7.5 · 41.5 · final 17–19 |
JAX -7.5 · 41.5 | Over 41.5 model 42.5 · edge 1 | L U | 17–19 |
2026 · Week 5 DAL -8.5 · 49.5 · final 24–16 |
DAL -8.5 · 49.5 | Under 49.5 model 47 · edge 2.5 | W U | 24–16 |
2026 · Week 4 NO -1.5 · 48.5 · final 45–24 |
NO -1.5 · 48.5 | Under 48.5 model 44.5 · edge 4 | L O | 45–24 |
2026 · Week 4 DET -3.5 · 52.5 · final 26–32 |
DET -3.5 · 52.5 | Under 52.5 model 51.5 · edge 1 | L O | 26–32 |
2026 · Week 4 KC -3.5 · 47.5 · final 30–27 |
KC -3.5 · 47.5 | Under 47.5 model 43.5 · edge 4 | L O | 30–27 |
2026 · Week 4 SF -3 · 48.5 · final 14–24 |
SF -3 · 48.5 | Under 48.5 model 45 · edge 3.5 | W U | 14–24 |
2026 · Week 4 SEA -7 · 43.5 · final 23–30 |
SEA -7 · 43.5 | Under 43.5 model 42.5 · edge 1 | L O | 23–30 |
2026 · Week 4 MIN -10 · 38.5 · final 10–15 |
MIN -10 · 38.5 | Over 38.5 model 41 · edge 2.5 | L U | 10–15 |
2026 · Week 4 BUF -7 · 49.5 · final 29–26 |
BUF -7 · 49.5 | Under 49.5 model 45 · edge 4.5 | L O | 29–26 |
2026 · Week 4 CHI -3.5 · 43.5 · final 12–23 |
CHI -3.5 · 43.5 | Under 43.5 model 42.5 · edge 1 | W U | 12–23 |
2026 · Week 4 CIN -2.5 · 51.5 · final 22–17 |
CIN -2.5 · 51.5 | Under 51.5 model 48 · edge 3.5 | W U | 22–17 |
2026 · Week 4 ARI -2.5 · 43.5 · final 24–36 |
ARI -2.5 · 43.5 | Under 43.5 model 43 · edge 0.5 | L O | 24–36 |
2026 · Week 4 LAR -4.5 · 42.5 · final 24–20 |
LAR -4.5 · 42.5 | Over 42.5 model 43.5 · edge 1 | W O | 24–20 |
2026 · Week 4 GB -2.5 · 38.5 · final 17–14 |
GB -2.5 · 38.5 | Over 38.5 model 43.5 · edge 5 | L U | 17–14 |
2026 · Week 4 BAL -11.5 · 41.5 · final 18–24 |
BAL -11.5 · 41.5 | Over 41.5 model 44.5 · edge 3 | W O | 18–24 |
2026 · Week 4 HOU -3 · 48.5 · final 34–30 |
HOU -3 · 48.5 | Under 48.5 model 47 · edge 1.5 | L O | 34–30 |
2026 · Week 4 IND -4.5 · 46.5 · final 30–13 |
IND -4.5 · 46.5 | Over 46.5 model 47.5 · edge 1 | L U | 30–13 |
2026 · Week 4 PIT -2.5 · 38.5 · final 24–27 |
PIT -2.5 · 38.5 | Under 38.5 model 38 · edge 0.5 | L O | 24–27 |
2026 · Week 3 PHI -3 · 42.5 · final 7–27 |
PHI -3 · 42.5 | Over 42.5 model 44 · edge 1.5 | L U | 7–27 |
2026 · Week 3 DEN -1.5 · 44.5 · final 26–30 |
DEN -1.5 · 44.5 | Under 44.5 model 42 · edge 2.5 | L O | 26–30 |
2026 · Week 3 BAL -3 · 54.5 · final 34–31 |
BAL -3 · 54.5 | Under 54.5 model 50.5 · edge 4 | L O | 34–31 |
2026 · Week 3 NO -3.5 · 44.5 · final 35–27 |
NO -3.5 · 44.5 | Under 44.5 model 42.5 · edge 2 | L O | 35–27 |
2026 · Week 3 SF -7.5 · 48.5 · final 30–36 |
SF -7.5 · 48.5 | Under 48.5 model 45.5 · edge 3 | L O | 30–36 |
2026 · Week 3 TB -1.5 · 42.5 · final 23–16 |
TB -1.5 · 42.5 | Over 42.5 model 43.5 · edge 1 | L U | 23–16 |
2026 · Week 3 BUF -7 · 50.5 · final 16–24 |
BUF -7 · 50.5 | Under 50.5 model 45.5 · edge 5 | W U | 16–24 |
NE
CHI
WSH
SF
DAL
GB
BUF
LV
ARI
LAR
ATL
BAL
CLE
TEN
IND
NYJ
NO
NYG
CAR
PHI
PIT
TB
HOU
JAX
DET
SEA
DEN
LAC
CIN
MIA
MIN
KCTotal edge is the model’s projected total minus the closing total, in points; the side is Over when the model projects more points than the market, Under when fewer. Every number uses what was known before kickoff: the closing line, the model’s projection made before the game, and the season trend as of that game. The model is the rating model; these records come from the same numbers as the game cards, so they can differ from the Deep dive backtests, a separate run since 2016. Pushes are counted in the games but not in the hit rate. Break-even is 52.4% at -110; the 95% range shows how much a hit rate could move with this many games. History, not a prediction: a hit rate above break-even in the past is not a promise.