Bears @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sun, Oct 18, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Atlanta Falcons

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

3-2 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Atlanta Falcons

2-3 · Power #18

final

Closing spread

CHI -1.5

✓ CHI W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 25–23 ATL

✓ CHI (55%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCHI -3

CloseCHI -1.5

Total47.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:15

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons: game recap

Made automatically from this game’s final numbers (Oct 19, 11:35 AM ET).

Transcript

Chicago Bears beat Atlanta Falcons, 31 to 23. Here’s how it played out. The Bears struck first, a 10-play, 67-yard touchdown drive. The Falcons’ touchdown with 5:41 left made it 31 to 23. First quarter, 1:07 left. Swift runs it in from 4 yards out. Second quarter, 5:45 left. Penix finds Dotson for a 13-yard touchdown. Fourth quarter, 3:01 left. A sack and a fumble. Bush recovers. Chicago Bears out-gained Atlanta Falcons 368 yards to 257. Chicago Bears won the turnover battle, 1 to 3. Chicago Bears was more efficient, with a 50 percent success rate. Before kickoff, our model had Chicago Bears winning 25 to 23. That pick was right. It projected 48.5 total points; they scored 54. Chicago Bears was favored by 1.5, and Chicago Bears covered by 6.5. With 54 points, the game went over the total of 50.5. In our power ratings, Chicago Bears climbs from 9th to 4th, and Atlanta Falcons holds at 18th. Full recap at sportsanalysis.info

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCHI -3

1.5 → ATL

CloseCHI -1.5

1.5 pts toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open47.5

▲ 3

Close50.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened CHI -3 · closed CHI -1.5 · moved 1.5 toward ATLmodel ATL -0.5

model ATL -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 55% (110 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 25% (36 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCHI -3

CloseCHI -1.5

Total47.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	CHI	ATL	Over	Under	CHI	ATL
BetMGMMGM	-1-108	+1-110	51.5-108	51.5-112	-110	+100
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	PK-110	PK-110	51-110	51-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-1.5-108	+1.5-113	51.5-109	51.5-112	-120	-103
BetUSBetUS	PK-110	PK-110	51.5-110	51.5-110	—	—
BovadaBovada	-1-110	+1-110	51.5-105	51.5-115	-115	-105
DraftKingsDK	-1.5-108	+1.5-112	51.5-108	51.5-112	-118	-102
FanDuelFD	-1.5-105	+1.5-115	51.5-105	51.5-115	-116	-102
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	PK-105	PK-105	51-107	51-107	—	—
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	51.5-110	51.5-110	-125	+106

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. DraftKings’ row has a total of 51.5, while the closing line on this card (the close recorded for DraftKings) is a total of 50.5. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 1.5-point road favorite at ATL, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 31–23; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.5 against an average line of 2.6; 43.9 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SEA @ WSH 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	38–14	W	O47.5
Close	BAL @ KC 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	20–37	L	O49.5
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	CIN @ PIT 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	19–17	L	U48.5
Close	KC @ PIT 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	29–10	W	U45.5
Close	LAR @ NO 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	21–14	W	U48.5
Close	SF @ NYG 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · close · similar season form & rest	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Close	JAX @ IND 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	23–17	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLWWL	3-2	60%	1-1	2-2
ATL LLWWL	2-3	40%	0-2	2-2

Venue/role: CHI away, as favorite; ATL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUUU	1-4	20%	3-2
ATL UUOOO	3-2	60%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 109 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–53.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
ATL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CHI 8–4 ATL CHI leads · 12 games since 2001 · CHI has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 31 2023	Atlanta Falcons 17 @ Chicago Bears 37	CHI -2.5	CHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI+0.4 →+2.5▲ 2.1#9

ATL−0.6 →−0.6–#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

CHI

Longer bar = better

ATL

#13

Offense

Even

#13

#17

Defense

ATL better ▶

#12

−0.8 #24

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #27

73 plays #1

Pace

◀ CHI faster

62 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #14	24.4 #21	CHI
Yards / play	5.36 #15	5.02 #9	ATL
EPA / play	+0.02 #12	−0.04 #13	Even
Success rate	46% #11	40% #4	ATL

When ATL has the ball

Even matchup

	ATL off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #13	19.2 #5	CHI
Yards / play	5.84 #8	6.20 #30	ATL
EPA / play	−0.02 #19	+0.01 #20	Even
Success rate	46% #10	42% #12	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	6.2 #4	6.6 #15	12.8 #12	6.2 #10	4.8 #27	11.0 #21
ATL allowed	4.6 #16	6.6 #14	11.2 #17	4.6 #17	7.2 #18	11.8 #15

ATL scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	7.0 #3	6.0 #18	13.0 #10	4.0 #21	6.8 #16	10.8 #23
CHI allowed	3.4 #11	7.4 #19	10.8 #14	3.8 #5	4.6 #4	8.4 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.