Cowboys @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sun, Oct 18, 2026, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Green Bay Packers

Weather at kickoff56°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

2-3 · Power #20

final

Final

Green Bay Packers

3-2 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

DAL -1.5

✓ GB W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 25–24 GB

✗ DAL (54%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGB -3

CloseDAL -1.5

Total51.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:19

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: game recap

Made automatically (Oct 19, 11:58 AM ET). The “Model before kickoff” score on this card was updated after the video was made, so the video quotes an older one.

Watch on YouTube ↗More game recaps ›

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -3

4.5 → DAL

CloseDAL -1.5

4.5 pts toward Dallas Cowboys

Total

Open51.5

▲ 3

Close54.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened GB -3 · closed DAL -1.5 · moved 4.5 toward DALmodel GB -3.5

model GB -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 56% (113 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 24% (37 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGB -3

CloseDAL -1.5

Total51.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	DAL	GB	Over	Under	DAL	GB
BetMGMMGM	+1-110	-1-108	53.5-110	53.5-108	-102	-115
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	PK-105	PK-115	53.5-112	53.5-108	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	+1-108	-1-113	53.5-108	53.5-113	+100	-121
BetUSBetUS	PK-105	PK-115	54-105	54-115	—	—
BovadaBovada	+1-115	-1-105	54-105	54-115	-105	-115
DraftKingsDK	-1.5-102	+1.5-118	53.5-115	53.5-105	-115	-105
FanDuelFD	+1.5-118	-1.5-104	53.5-105	53.5-115	-102	-116
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	PK+100	PK-110	53.5-109	53.5-105	—	—
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+1-110	-1-110	53.5-110	53.5-110	-102	-115

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. DraftKings’ row has a total of 53.5, while the closing line on this card (the close recorded for DraftKings) is a total of 54.5. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 6 games most like DAL as a 1.5-point road favorite at GB, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 23–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 6 similar games. 36 points stayed under 54.5, as in 5 of 6.

Favorite won

4 of 667%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 667%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

1 of 617%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 6 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 1.5 against an average line of 1.6; 41.2 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 6 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ATL @ ARI 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	26–19	W	U48.5
Close	LAR @ SEA 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-2	26–20	W	U48.5
Loose	ATL @ SF 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & situation	-1.5	10–20	L	U46.5
Loose	NYJ @ ARI 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1.5	6–31	L	U46.5
Loose	SEA @ JAX 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-1.5	20–12	W	U47.5
Loose	ATL @ TB 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-0.5	31–26	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL LWPWL	2-2-1	50%	1-1	1-2
GB LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: DAL away, as favorite; GB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL OOOOU	4-1	80%	2-3
GB OUOUU	2-3	40%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 51% of games with totals 51.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAL	3-7 30%	2-7-1 22%	9-1 90%
GB	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

DAL 4–12 GB (1 tied) GB leads · 17 games since 1999 · GB has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2025	Green Bay Packers 40 @ Dallas Cowboys 40	GB -6.5	DAL W
Jan 14 2023	Green Bay Packers 48 @ Dallas Cowboys 32	DAL -7	GB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL−0.6 →−1.1▼ 0.5#20

GB+0.9 →+0.5▼ 0.4#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

DAL

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ DAL better

#19

#31

Defense

GB better ▶

#13

−0.6 #27

Turnovers

GB better ▶

+0.6 #9

61 plays #21

Pace

◀ DAL faster

59 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #6	22.4 #15	DAL
Yards / play	5.76 #10	4.70 #4	GB
EPA / play	+0.13 #6	−0.04 #8	Even
Success rate	48% #7	44% #23	DAL

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #24	27.2 #26	Even
Yards / play	5.64 #13	6.38 #32	GB
EPA / play	−0.02 #17	+0.19 #32	GB
Success rate	41% #23	52% #32	GB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	6.0 #4	4.6 #27	10.6 #18	7.8 #5	9.2 #5	17.0 #4
GB allowed	2.0 #3	7.6 #22	9.6 #10	4.2 #15	8.6 #26	12.8 #20

GB scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	4.6 #13	6.8 #13	11.4 #16	3.8 #21	5.0 #26	8.8 #29
DAL allowed	4.8 #17	8.0 #23	12.8 #23	8.2 #29	6.2 #10	14.4 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.