Bills @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sun, Oct 18, 2026, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Las Vegas Raiders

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

4-1 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

3-2 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

BUF -5.5

✓ LV W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 29–23 LV

✓ BUF (70%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -6.5

CloseBUF -5.5

Total47.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:25

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders: game recap

Made automatically (Oct 19, 11:56 AM ET). The “Model before kickoff” score on this card was updated after the video was made, so the video quotes an older one.

Watch on YouTube ↗More game recaps ›

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -6.5

1 → LV

CloseBUF -5.5

1 pt toward Las Vegas Raiders

Total

Open47.5

▲ 7

Close54.5

Up 7 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened BUF -6.5 · closed BUF -5.5 · moved 1 toward LVmodel BUF -7.5

model BUF -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 54% (72 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (78 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -6.5

CloseBUF -5.5

Total47.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	BUF	LV	Over	Under	BUF	LV
BetMGMMGM	-5-110	+5-108	53.5-110	53.5-108	-235	+195
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-4.5-115	+4.5-105	53.5-110	53.5-110	-230	+192
BetRiversBetRivers	-5-113	+5-108	53-109	53-112	-250	+200
BetUSBetUS	-4.5-115	+4.5-105	53.5-110	53.5-110	-230	+195
BovadaBovada	-5-110	+5-110	53.5-110	53.5-110	-240	+200
DraftKingsDK	-5.5-108	+5.5-112	53.5-112	53.5-108	-238	+195
FanDuelFD	-5.5-105	+5.5-115	53.5-110	53.5-110	-245	+200
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-4.5-110	+4.5+100	53.5-107	53.5-107	-230	+192
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-4.5-110	+4.5-110	53.5-110	53.5-110	-239	+198

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. DraftKings’ row has a total of 53.5, while the closing line on this card (the close recorded for DraftKings) is a total of 54.5. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like BUF as a 5.5-point road favorite at LV, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 33–30; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 4 similar games. 63 points went over 54.5, as in 2 of 4.

Favorite won

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8 against an average line of 4.3; 52.5 points a game (usually 45.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DET @ CAR 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	26–32	L	O52.5
Loose	DET @ ARI 2026 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-4.5	45–21	W	O55.5
Loose	BAL @ MIN 2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & spread	-4.5	27–19	W	U49.5
Loose	JAX @ IND 2025 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & spread	-4.5	23–17	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WWWLW	4-1	80%	2-0	3-1
LV WWWWL	4-1	80%	2-0	3-1

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; LV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OOUOO	4-1	80%	4-1
LV UUOOO	3-2	60%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 25 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–57.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
LV	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BUF 6–6 LV Series tied · 12 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 17 2023	Las Vegas Raiders 10 @ Buffalo Bills 38	BUF -8	BUF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.1 →+2.9▲ 0.8#7

LV−3.0 →−2.3▲ 0.7#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

BUF

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ BUF better

#14

#27

Defense

LV better ▶

#24

−0.8 #26

Turnovers

LV better ▶

+0.6 #11

59 plays #23

Pace

LV faster ▶

65 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #2	25.8 #22	BUF
Yards / play	6.72 #1	6.12 #28	BUF
EPA / play	+0.21 #1	+0.01 #19	BUF
Success rate	49% #3	45% #25	BUF

When LV has the ball

Advantage: LV offense

	LV off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	26.4 #8	28.2 #28	LV
Yards / play	5.16 #18	5.55 #22	Even
EPA / play	0.00 #14	+0.13 #30	LV
Success rate	43% #17	48% #29	LV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.6 #13	13.6 #1	18.2 #1	3.2 #25	10.8 #1	14.0 #8
LV allowed	5.4 #23	6.0 #13	11.4 #17	8.4 #31	6.0 #8	14.4 #26

LV scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	4.8 #11	7.8 #11	12.6 #13	5.2 #13	8.6 #11	13.8 #9
BUF allowed	4.8 #18	7.6 #21	12.4 #22	4.8 #18	11.0 #31	15.8 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.