Raiders @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sun, Sep 17, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Buffalo Bills

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Las Vegas Raiders

1-0 · Power #23

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

0-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -8

✓ BUF W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

LV 27–34 BUF

✓ BUF (75%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -8

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBUF -8

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -8

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as an 8-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 38–10; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 7.4; 46.5 points a game (usually 48.3).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KC vs GB 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	13–7	L	U48
Close	KC vs LAC 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	24–30	L	U56
Close	BAL vs MIN 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-7	34–31	L	O51
Close	CLE vs CIN 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	21–16	L	U38
Close	NO vs LAC 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	30–27	L	O48.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2021 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & rest	-8	34–13	W	O45.5
Close	SF vs SEA 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar season form & spread	-8.5	27–7	W	U39.5
Close	GB vs NYJ 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-8	10–27	L	U44.5
Close	MIN vs DET 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	28–24	L	O51.5
Close	CIN vs BAL 2021 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	41–21	W	O43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0
BUF –	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV U	0-1	0%	1-0
BUF –	0-0	—	0-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LVlast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%
BUFlast 1	0-1 0%	0-0 —	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LV 6–6 BUF Series tied · 12 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Longer bar = better

BUF

#16

Offense

Even

#16

#18

Defense

Even

#20

−1.0 #24

Turnovers

◀ LV better

−3.0 #32

55 plays #27

Pace

BUF faster ▶

68 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #21	22.0 #19	Even
Yards / play	4.75 #17	5.45 #24	LV
EPA / play	+0.17 #3	−0.05 #22	LV
Success rate	37% #23	39% #14	BUF

When BUF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUF off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #25	16.0 #10	LV
Yards / play	4.62 #18	4.48 #12	LV
EPA / play	−0.07 #14	0.00 #23	BUF
Success rate	49% #5	46% #27	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.