Sun, Sep 17, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Cincinnati Bengals · Division game
Weather at kickoff73°F3 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›
1-0 · Power #2
27
▲ winner
Final
@
0-1 · Power #17
24
final
Closing spread
—
 
Total
—
 
Model before kickoff
BAL 24–21 CIN
✓ BAL (65%) won
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Market

Open → close
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
Baltimore Ravens have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
BAL
Longer bar = better
CIN
#14
Offense
◀ BAL better
#32
#5
Defense
◀ BAL better
#19
−1.0 #23
Turnovers
CIN better ▶
+2.0 #5
58 plays #25
Pace
◀ BAL faster
54 plays #29
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When BAL has the ball
Even matchup
BAL offCIN defEdge
Points / game 25.0 #9 24.0 #21 BAL
Yards / play 4.57 #20 4.86 #20 Even
EPA / play −0.05 #13 −0.14 #14 Even
Success rate 41% #15 41% #20 BAL
When CIN has the ball
Advantage: BAL defense
CIN offBAL defEdge
Points / game 3.0 #31 9.0 #4 BAL
Yards / play 2.63 #32 3.72 #4 BAL
EPA / play −0.47 #32 −0.27 #7 BAL
Success rate 21% #32 31% #3 BAL

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
CIN +1.8
home-field points in the model
Weather
73° · 3 mph
gusts 12 mph · at kickoff
Rest
BAL7d
CIN7d
Even
Tempo
Slow 112 plays
slowavg 128fast