Sun, Sep 17, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Houston Texans · Division game
Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›
0-1 · Power #21
31
▲ winner
Final
@
0-1 · Power #13
20
final
Closing spread
—
 
Total
—
 
Model before kickoff
IND 25–27 HOU
✗ HOU (58%) lost
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Market

Open → close
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
Indianapolis Colts have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
IND
Longer bar = better
HOU
#24
Offense
◀ IND better
#28
#22
Defense
Even
#19
−1.0 #19
Turnovers
HOU better ▶
+1.0 #13
69 plays #9
Pace
Even
72 plays #6
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When IND has the ball
Advantage: HOU defense
IND offHOU defEdge
Points / game 21.0 #15 25.0 #23 IND
Yards / play 4.06 #23 4.57 #13 HOU
EPA / play −0.40 #30 −0.05 #21 HOU
Success rate 33% #27 41% #18 HOU
When HOU has the ball
Advantage: IND defense
HOU offIND defEdge
Points / game 9.0 #29 31.0 #28 Even
Yards / play 3.72 #28 4.96 #21 IND
EPA / play −0.27 #26 −0.23 #9 IND
Success rate 31% #30 50% #29 Even

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
HOU +1.8
home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
IND7d
HOU7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 141 plays
slowavg 128fast
Quarterback
IND backup QB started
Not on the final injury report