Sun, Sep 17, 2023, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Dallas Cowboys
Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›
1-0 · Power #26
10
final
Final
@
1-0 · Power #3
30
▲ winner
Closing spread
—
 
Total
—
 
Model before kickoff
NYJ 18–30 DAL
✓ DAL (87%) won
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Market

Open → close
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
New York Jets have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
NYJ
Longer bar = better
DAL
#13
Offense
DAL better ▶
#8
#19
Defense
DAL better ▶
#3
+3.0 #4
Turnovers
Even
+3.0 #3
53 plays #30
Pace
Even
55 plays #28
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When NYJ has the ball
Advantage: DAL defense
NYJ offDAL defEdge
Points / game 22.0 #13 0.0 #1 DAL
Yards / play 5.45 #8 2.63 #2 DAL
EPA / play −0.05 #12 −0.46 #2 DAL
Success rate 39% #19 32% #5 DAL
When DAL has the ball
Advantage: DAL offense
DAL offNYJ defEdge
Points / game 40.0 #1 16.0 #11 DAL
Yards / play 4.82 #16 4.62 #15 Even
EPA / play +0.06 #7 −0.07 #20 DAL
Success rate 44% #8 49% #28 DAL

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
DAL +1.8
home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
NYJ6d
DAL7d
DAL +1 day
Tempo
Slow 108 plays
slowavg 128fast