Commanders @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sun, Sep 17, 2023, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Denver Broncos

Weather at kickoff79°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

1-0 · Power #32

▲ winner

Final

Denver Broncos

0-1 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

✓ WSH W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

WSH 26–29 DEN

✗ DEN (62%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDEN -3.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDEN -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDEN -3.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 3.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: WSH won 35–33 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.1 against an average line of 2.8; 42.1 points a game (usually 46.7).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LV vs DEN 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	32–23	W	O45.5
Very close	ATL vs CHI 2020 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	26–30	L	O46
Very close	ATL vs CAR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	13–19	L	U46.5
Very close	ATL vs CAR 2020 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	16–23	L	U53.5
Very close	BAL vs CLE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–10	W	U47.5
Very close	NYG vs CHI 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–12	W	U39
Very close	CLE vs BAL 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	13–3	W	U38.5
Very close	LAC vs TEN 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–14	P	U46.5
Very close	ARI vs NO 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	42–34	W	O44
Very close	GB vs MIN 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	41–17	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH L	0-1	0%	—	—
DEN L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH U	0-1	0%	1-0
DEN U	0-1	0%	0-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	0-1 0%
DENlast 1	0-1 0%	0-1 0%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSH 4–4 DEN Series tied · 8 games since 2001 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH

Longer bar = better

DEN

#23

Offense

DEN better ▶

#15

Defense

◀ WSH better

#18

−1.0 #22

Turnovers

DEN better ▶

+1.0 #14

65 plays #15

Pace

◀ WSH faster

58 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	WSH off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #18	17.0 #13	DEN
Yards / play	3.82 #27	4.75 #17	DEN
EPA / play	−0.29 #27	+0.17 #30	Even
Success rate	38% #21	37% #10	DEN

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: WSH defense

	DEN off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #24	16.0 #9	WSH
Yards / play	4.48 #21	3.62 #3	WSH
EPA / play	0.00 #10	−0.35 #4	WSH
Success rate	46% #6	31% #4	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.