Bills @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sun, Sep 24, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Washington Commanders

Weather at kickoff68°F2 mphgusts 7Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

1-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Washington Commanders

2-0 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

BUF -4.5

✓ BUF W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

BUF 29–24 WSH

✓ BUF (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -4.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBUF -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -4.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 4.5-point road favorite at WSH, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 37–3; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 4.6; 47.4 points a game (usually 46.9).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUF @ BAL 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	23–20	P	U51
Close	BUF @ NO 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread	-4.5	31–6	W	U45
Close	TB @ NO 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	27–36	L	O48.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	24–8	W	U47.5
Close	DAL @ JAX 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar rest	-6	34–40	L	O48
Close	BUF @ TEN 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	31–34	L	O53
Close	GB @ CHI 2020 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	35–16	W	O48
Close	NO @ ATL 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-3	21–16	W	U45.5
Close	TB @ NO 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	20–10	W	U44
Close	SF @ ATL 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	14–28	L	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF –W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
WSH LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-0

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; WSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF ––	0-0	—	1-1
WSH U–	0-1	0%	2-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFlast 2	1-1 50%	1-0 100%	0-0 —
WSHlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BUF 7–1 WSH BUF leads · 8 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF−1.0 →+7.5▲ 8.5#4

WSH+0.4 →+0.3▼ 0.1#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

BUF

Longer bar = better

WSH

Offense

◀ BUF better

#16

#14

Defense

Even

#12

0.0 #18

Turnovers

WSH better ▶

+0.5 #14

71 plays #5

Pace

◀ BUF faster

66 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #8	24.5 #17	BUF
Yards / play	5.38 #8	5.08 #13	BUF
EPA / play	+0.13 #3	−0.10 #12	BUF
Success rate	55% #1	38% #5	Even

When WSH has the ball

Even matchup

	WSH off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #7	16.0 #6	Even
Yards / play	4.85 #23	5.75 #29	WSH
EPA / play	−0.04 #19	−0.14 #9	BUF
Success rate	43% #14	41% #11	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

BUF scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.0	12.0	17.0	3.5	6.5	10.0
WSH allowed	8.5	8.5	17.0	3.0	4.5	7.5

WSH scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	5.0	7.0	12.0	3.5	12.0	15.5
BUF allowed	3.5	3.0	6.5	1.5	5.0	6.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.