Sun, Sep 24, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Cleveland Browns
Weather at kickoff63°F15 mphgusts 20DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›
1-1 · Power #27
3
final
Final
@
1-1 · Power #8
27
▲ winner
Closing spread
—
 
Total
—
 
Model before kickoff
TEN 16–22 CLE
✓ CLE (71%) won
Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
Tennessee Titans have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Loading play-by-play…

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
TEN−0.8 →−0.5▲ 0.3#15
CLE+6.0 →+1.7▼ 4.3#9
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

TEN
Longer bar = better
CLE
#21
Offense
Even
#22
#14
Defense
CLE better ▶
#2
−0.5 #19
Turnovers
◀ TEN better
−2.0 #29
61 plays #21
Pace
CLE faster ▶
77 plays #2
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When TEN has the ball
Advantage: CLE defense
TEN offCLE defEdge
Points / game 21.0 #20 14.5 #3 CLE
Yards / play 5.13 #14 3.71 #2 CLE
EPA / play −0.10 #21 −0.43 #2 CLE
Success rate 36% #29 24% #1 CLE
When CLE has the ball
Advantage: TEN defense
CLE offTEN defEdge
Points / game 23.0 #17 20.0 #11 TEN
Yards / play 4.95 #22 5.37 #20 Even
EPA / play −0.18 #27 0.00 #19 TEN
Success rate 41% #22 39% #6 TEN

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams
TEN scoring against the CLE defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
TEN scored
3.0
6.5
9.5
3.5
6.5
10.0
CLE allowed
3.5
4.5
8.0
3.0
3.5
6.5
CLE scoring against the TEN defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
CLE scored
1.5
10.5
12.0
5.5
5.5
11.0
TEN allowed
3.0
7.0
10.0
5.0
5.0
10.0

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
CLE +1.8
home-field points in the model
Weather
63° · 15 mph
gusts 20 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
TEN7d
CLE6d
TEN +1 day
Tempo
Fast 138 plays
slowavg 128fast