Falcons @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sun, Sep 24, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Detroit Lions

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Atlanta Falcons

2-0 · Power #24

final

Final

Detroit Lions

1-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

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Total

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Model before kickoff

ATL 28–27 DET

✗ ATL (53%) lost

Loading the recap…

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL ––	0-0	—	—	—
DET ––	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: ATL away; DET home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL ––	0-0	—	2-0
DET ––	0-0	—	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 2	2-0 100%	0-0 —	0-0 —
DETlast 2	1-1 50%	0-0 —	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ATL 7–6 DET ATL leads · 13 games since 2000 · DET has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL+2.1 →+2.8▲ 0.7#7

DET+1.7 →−1.9▼ 3.6#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

ATL

Longer bar = better

DET

#12

Offense

Even

Defense

◀ ATL better

#27

+1.0 #8

Turnovers

◀ ATL better

−1.5 #26

63 plays #18

Pace

DET faster ▶

67 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: ATL offense

	ATL off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #14	28.5 #28	ATL
Yards / play	5.29 #11	5.50 #26	ATL
EPA / play	+0.03 #12	+0.05 #25	ATL
Success rate	45% #11	48% #28	ATL

When DET has the ball

Even matchup

	DET off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #10	17.0 #8	Even
Yards / play	5.87 #4	4.24 #4	Even
EPA / play	0.00 #14	−0.14 #6	ATL
Success rate	45% #8	42% #14	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

ATL scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	1.5	6.5	8.0	3.0	13.5	16.5
DET allowed	3.5	7.0	10.5	6.5	8.5	15.0

DET scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	7.0	3.5	10.5	7.0	8.5	15.5
ATL allowed	0.0	8.5	8.5	8.5	0.0	8.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.