Falcons vs Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sun, Oct 1, 2023, 9:30 AM EDTWeek 4 · Neutral site

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Atlanta Falcons

2-1 · Power #24

final

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

1-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

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Total

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Model before kickoff

ATL 20–21 JAX

✓ JAX (54%) won

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ATL –––	0-0	—	—	—
JAX –––	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: ATL neutral; JAX neutral. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL –––	0-0	—	2-1
JAX –––	0-0	—	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 3	2-1 67%	0-0 —	0-0 —
JAXlast 3	1-2 33%	0-0 —	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ATL 5–3 JAX ATL leads · 8 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL+2.1 →−3.1▼ 5.2#23

JAX+3.9 →−3.6▼ 7.5#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ATL

Longer bar = better

JAX

#25

Offense

JAX better ▶

#20

Defense

◀ ATL better

#13

−0.3 #18

Turnovers

JAX better ▶

+1.0 #7

62 plays #19

Pace

JAX faster ▶

67 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	ATL off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #27	20.5 #13	JAX
Yards / play	4.58 #26	5.41 #21	JAX
EPA / play	−0.14 #24	−0.10 #12	JAX
Success rate	41% #23	40% #6	JAX

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	JAX off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #19	19.3 #8	ATL
Yards / play	4.95 #17	4.71 #8	ATL
EPA / play	−0.15 #27	−0.07 #14	ATL
Success rate	43% #15	40% #7	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	1.0 #27	5.3 #21	6.3 #27	2.0 #27	10.0 #4	12.0 #12
JAX allowed	2.3 #6	8.0 #18	10.3 #13	9.3 #29	5.3 #11	14.7 #25

JAX scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	2.3 #21	4.3 #27	6.7 #26	4.3 #16	8.0 #12	12.3 #10
ATL allowed	1.0 #3	9.0 #26	10.0 #11	5.7 #20	2.3 #2	8.0 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.