Buccaneers @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sun, Oct 1, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at New Orleans Saints · Division game

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2-1 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

New Orleans Saints

2-1 · Power #11

final

Closing spread

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Total

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Model before kickoff

TB 15–20 NO

✗ NO (71%) lost

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB –––	0-0	—	—	—
NO –––	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: TB away; NO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB –––	0-0	—	2-1
NO –––	0-0	—	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TBlast 3	2-1 67%	0-0 —	0-0 —
NOlast 3	2-1 67%	0-0 —	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TB 23–28 NO NO leads · 51 games since 1999 · NO has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+0.3 →−5.9▼ 6.2#30

NO+0.8 →−2.4▼ 3.2#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

#21

Offense

Even

#20

#18

Defense

NO better ▶

+1.7 #2

Turnovers

◀ TB better

+0.7 #12

60 plays #23

Pace

NO faster ▶

66 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	TB off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #20	16.7 #6	NO
Yards / play	4.74 #23	4.65 #7	NO
EPA / play	0.00 #13	−0.12 #8	NO
Success rate	39% #27	38% #2	NO

When NO has the ball

Even matchup

	NO off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #24	19.7 #9	TB
Yards / play	4.77 #20	5.61 #27	NO
EPA / play	−0.03 #16	−0.05 #15	Even
Success rate	42% #18	46% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	2.0 #23	6.7 #14	8.7 #23	4.7 #13	6.0 #18	10.7 #18
NO allowed	3.0 #12	1.0 #1	4.0 #1	1.0 #2	11.7 #29	12.7 #20

NO scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	4.3 #15	5.3 #22	9.7 #17	5.7 #10	2.3 #28	8.0 #25
TB allowed	3.3 #15	7.7 #17	11.0 #15	3.0 #12	5.7 #13	8.7 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.