Saints @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sun, Oct 8, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at New England Patriots

Weather at kickoff62°F11 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

2-2 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

New England Patriots

1-3 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

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Total

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Model before kickoff

NO 13–20 NE

✗ NE (73%) lost

Loading the recap…

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO ––––	0-0	—	—	—
NE ––––	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: NO away; NE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO ––––	0-0	—	2-2
NE ––––	0-0	—	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOlast 4	2-2 50%	0-0 —	0-0 —
NElast 4	1-3 25%	0-0 —	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NO 3–5 NE NE leads · 8 games since 2001 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO+0.8 →−7.0▼ 7.8#29

NE0.0 →−0.9▼ 0.9#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

#27

Offense

Even

#25

Defense

◀ NO better

#12

0.0 #15

Turnovers

◀ NO better

−1.3 #28

65 plays #13

Pace

NE faster ▶

68 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	NO off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #26	24.3 #21	NE
Yards / play	4.41 #29	4.71 #6	NE
EPA / play	−0.11 #24	−0.05 #11	NE
Success rate	39% #27	41% #9	NE

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	NE off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	13.8 #30	19.0 #9	NO
Yards / play	4.69 #24	4.81 #8	NO
EPA / play	−0.18 #28	−0.08 #9	NO
Success rate	41% #19	39% #5	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	4.0 #17	4.0 #27	8.0 #26	5.0 #8	2.5 #28	7.5 #24
NE allowed	7.3 #27	8.8 #26	16.0 #27	1.5 #3	6.8 #18	8.3 #10

NE scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	1.5 #26	6.0 #18	7.5 #27	0.8 #31	5.5 #21	6.3 #30
NO allowed	2.3 #7	4.3 #4	6.5 #2	0.8 #2	11.8 #32	12.5 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.