Patriots @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sun, Oct 15, 2023, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Las Vegas Raiders

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New England Patriots

1-4 · Power #29

final

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

2-3 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

LV -3.5

✓ LV W

Total

40.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 18–21 LV

✓ LV (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseLV -3.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLV -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseLV -3.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LV as a 3.5-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 6, covered 2, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: LV won 21–17; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 40.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.5 against an average line of 3.2; 47.1 points a game (usually 46.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NE vs NYJ 2020 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	28–14	W	O40.5
Close	IND vs HOU 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	31–32	L	O37.5
Close	WSH vs NYG 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar total & spread	-4	30–29	L	O41
Close	PIT vs NYJ 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-3	20–24	L	O41.5
Close	NYG vs WSH 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-2	20–19	L	U42.5
Close	IND vs PIT 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	17–24	L	O39.5
Close	CHI vs HOU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	23–20	P	O39.5
Close	MIA vs HOU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	17–9	W	U45
Close	WSH vs NYG 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	20–23	L	P43
Close	ATL vs CAR 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	37–34	L	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE –––––	0-0	—	—	—
LV WLLLW	2-3	40%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; LV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE –––––	0-0	—	1-4
LV U–UUU	0-4	0%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NElast 5	1-4 20%	0-0 —	0-0 —
LVlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	0-4 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NE 8–4 LV NE leads · 12 games since 2001 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE0.0 →−7.1▼ 7.1#31

LV0.0 →−2.8▼ 2.8#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

#31

Offense

LV better ▶

#23

#13

Defense

◀ NE better

#22

−1.6 #30

Turnovers

Even

−1.4 #29

65 plays #13

Pace

◀ NE faster

59 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Advantage: LV defense

	NE off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	11.0 #32	22.8 #21	LV
Yards / play	4.44 #28	5.23 #16	LV
EPA / play	−0.27 #32	+0.03 #26	LV
Success rate	38% #31	45% #23	LV

When LV has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	LV off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	15.8 #30	26.2 #25	NE
Yards / play	4.78 #25	4.63 #5	NE
EPA / play	−0.10 #24	−0.03 #14	NE
Success rate	45% #11	41% #6	NE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	1.2 #29	4.8 #27	6.0 #29	0.6 #31	4.4 #25	5.0 #32
LV allowed	6.0 #25	8.8 #26	14.8 #27	5.4 #23	2.6 #2	8.0 #7

LV scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	5.6 #13	3.2 #29	8.8 #25	0.6 #31	6.4 #16	7.0 #30
NE allowed	7.2 #28	9.8 #29	17.0 #31	1.8 #5	7.4 #22	9.2 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.