Panthers @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sun, Oct 15, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Miami Dolphins

Weather at kickoff86°F9 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

0-5 · Power #31

final

Final

Miami Dolphins

4-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -13.5

✓ MIA W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

CAR 25–39 MIA

✓ MIA (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -13.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIA -13.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -13.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 13.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 42–21; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 46.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 17.6 against an average line of 13.3; 42.8 points a game (usually 43.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUF vs ATL 2021 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & total	-14	29–15	P	U46
Close	KC vs DEN 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar total & rest	-13	27–24	L	O46
Loose	GB vs JAX 2020 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & total	-13.5	24–20	L	U47
Loose	KC vs DEN 2020 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-13	22–16	L	U51.5
Loose	LAR vs JAX 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-13	37–7	W	U47.5
Loose	TB vs CHI 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & situation	-12	38–3	W	U47
Loose	LAR vs NYG 2020 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest	-13.5	17–9	L	U49
Loose	BAL vs JAX 2020 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-12.5	40–14	W	O48.5
Loose	BUF vs PIT 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-14	38–3	W	U44.5
Loose	MIA vs HOU 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & total	-14	30–15	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR –––––	0-0	—	—	—
MIA –––––	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR –––––	0-0	—	0-5
MIA –––––	0-0	—	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CARlast 5	0-5 0%	0-0 —	0-0 —
MIAlast 5	4-1 80%	0-0 —	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CAR 3–5 MIA MIA leads · 8 games since 2001 · CAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−2.1 →−6.4▼ 4.3#30

MIA+2.1 →+3.2▲ 1.1#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

CAR

Longer bar = better

MIA

#26

Offense

MIA better ▶

#27

Defense

MIA better ▶

#24

−0.8 #24

Turnovers

Even

−0.6 #23

67 plays #5

Pace

◀ CAR faster

62 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	18.2 #25	27.0 #26	Even
Yards / play	4.38 #30	5.35 #18	MIA
EPA / play	−0.14 #27	+0.01 #21	MIA
Success rate	41% #22	48% #29	CAR

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	36.2 #1	28.8 #28	MIA
Yards / play	8.31 #1	5.48 #22	MIA
EPA / play	+0.27 #1	+0.07 #27	MIA
Success rate	55% #1	50% #31	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	2.6 #22	6.6 #15	9.2 #22	1.2 #30	7.8 #11	9.0 #21
MIA allowed	5.6 #24	9.2 #28	14.8 #26	4.0 #15	8.2 #23	12.2 #23

MIA scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	7.6 #2	13.0 #1	20.6 #1	8.2 #2	7.4 #13	15.6 #2
CAR allowed	4.0 #15	8.0 #19	12.0 #20	6.8 #26	10.0 #30	16.8 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.