Dolphins @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sun, Oct 22, 2023, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Philadelphia Eagles

Weather at kickoff52°F9 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

5-1 · Power #7

final

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

5-1 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

✓ PHI W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 26–29 PHI

✓ PHI (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

ClosePHI -3.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePHI -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

ClosePHI -3.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 3.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 31–17; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.1 against an average line of 3.2; 48.9 points a game (usually 46.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NO vs GB 2020 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	30–37	L	O52
Very close	BAL vs LAC 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	34–6	W	U51
Very close	PHI vs MIN 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	24–7	W	U49.5
Very close	CLE vs ARI 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–37	L	O48.5
Close	TB vs BUF 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	33–27	W	O53
Close	CIN vs MIA 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	27–15	W	U49
Close	GB vs TEN 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	40–14	W	O52.5
Close	LAC vs LV 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-3	28–14	W	U51.5
Close	GB vs TB 2020 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-3	26–31	L	O53.5
Close	LAR vs ARI 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	34–11	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA ––––W	1-0	100%	—	—
PHI ––L–L	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA ––––O	1-0	100%	5-1
PHI ––O–U	1-1	50%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	5-1 83%	1-0 100%	1-0 100%
PHIlast 6	5-1 83%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIA 3–4 PHI PHI leads · 7 games since 1999 · PHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+2.1 →+3.1▲ 1.0#6

PHI0.0 →+3.8▲ 3.8#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MIA

Longer bar = better

PHI

Offense

◀ MIA better

#22

Defense

PHI better ▶

#12

−0.7 #27

Turnovers

PHI better ▶

−0.2 #18

62 plays #19

Pace

PHI faster ▶

71 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	37.2 #1	20.7 #15	MIA
Yards / play	8.00 #1	4.90 #8	MIA
EPA / play	+0.25 #1	−0.04 #15	MIA
Success rate	54% #1	41% #8	MIA

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PHI offense

	PHI off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #4	26.0 #27	PHI
Yards / play	5.54 #11	5.18 #16	PHI
EPA / play	+0.06 #7	−0.02 #19	PHI
Success rate	47% #6	46% #27	PHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	6.3 #6	14.3 #1	20.7 #1	8.0 #2	8.5 #3	16.5 #2
PHI allowed	2.3 #5	8.3 #24	10.7 #13	1.7 #2	8.3 #28	10.0 #16

PHI scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	7.2 #2	6.7 #15	13.8 #9	6.2 #3	5.3 #24	11.5 #8
MIA allowed	7.0 #30	7.7 #18	14.7 #29	3.3 #13	8.0 #25	11.3 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.