Sun, Oct 22, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at New York Giants · Division game
Closing spread
WSH -3.5
✓ NYG W
Total
36.5
▼ Under · 21 pts
Model before kickoff
WSH 24–21 NYG
✗ WSH (61%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
Opennot available
CloseWSH -3.5
Total36.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseWSH -3.5
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close36.5
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
Opennot available
CloseWSH -3.5
Total36.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
WSH as a 3.5-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
This game: NYG won 14–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 21 points stayed under 36.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 57%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 45%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 46%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.8 against an average line of 2.4; 39 points a game (usually 46.5). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |  CHI @  DET2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & team ratings |
-3 | 16–14 | L | U41.5 |
| Loose | WSH @  HOU2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread |
-3 | 23–10 | W | U41 |
| Loose | WSH @ CHI 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & situation |
-1 | 12–7 | W | U37.5 |
| Loose |  DEN @  LAR2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar total & rest |
-1.5 | 14–51 | L | O36.5 |
| Loose |  TEN @ HOU2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest |
-1.5 | 17–10 | W | U39.5 |
| Loose |  NO @  ATL2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & spread |
-4 | 30–20 | W | O40 |
| Loose | ATL @  CAR2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & spread |
-2.5 | 15–25 | L | U41.5 |
| Loose |  SF @ CHI2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & rest |
-3.5 | 33–22 | W | O40 |
| Loose | DEN @ CAR 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & total |
-1 | 10–23 | L | U36 |
| Loose | TEN @ WSH 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread |
-3 | 21–17 | W | U43 |
History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Washington Commanders ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Washington Commanders 3-0 ATS on the road
Strong against the spread on the road this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-69 (48%)
Wind 14 mph
Outdoor NFL games with 14 mph wind at kickoff have stayed under the total more often than the market allows for. · Backtest 2023–26: 57-46 (55%)
Small sample warning
New York Giants has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSHlast 6 | 3-3 50% | 3-3 50% | 2-2 50% |
 NYGlast 6 | 1-5 17% | 1-0 100% | 0-1 0% |
Recent meetings
The series
WSH 21–32 NYG (2 tied)
NYG leads · 55 games since 1999
All-time series from nflverse.
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
WSH+0.4 →−2.6▼ 3.0#26
NYG−9.1 →−4.1▲ 5.0#32
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6
WSHLonger bar = better
NYG#21
Offense
◀ WSH better#30
#24
Defense
◀ WSH better#29
−0.3 #22
Turnovers
Even−0.5 #24
62 plays #20
Pace
NYG faster ▶66 plays #13
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When WSH has the ball| WSH off | NYG def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 22.2 #15 | 27.8 #28 | WSH |
| Yards / play | 4.87 #24 | 6.13 #31 | WSH |
| EPA / play | −0.08 #23 | +0.07 #28 | WSH |
| Success rate | 41% #21 | 47% #29 | WSH |
When NYG has the ball| NYG off | WSH def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 11.8 #32 | 29.3 #29 | Even |
| Yards / play | 4.05 #32 | 5.73 #27 | WSH |
| EPA / play | −0.21 #31 | +0.05 #27 | Even |
| Success rate | 40% #26 | 42% #12 | WSH |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
WSH scoring against the NYG defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH scored | 3.3 #20 | 6.8 #14 | 10.2 #17 | 4.2 #14 | 7.8 #9 | 12.0 #8 |
| NYG allowed | 6.7 #28 | 9.0 #27 | 15.7 #29 | 6.5 #28 | 5.7 #15 | 12.2 #25 |
NYG scoring against the WSH defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG scored | 1.0 #29 | 3.2 #30 | 4.2 #32 | 3.8 #17 | 3.8 #28 | 7.7 #27 |
| WSH allowed | 8.5 #32 | 7.7 #20 | 16.2 #30 | 2.8 #10 | 9.8 #30 | 12.7 #26 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
NYG +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
56° · 14 mph
gusts 29 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
WSH7d
NYG7d
Even
Tempo
Average 128 plays
slowavg 127fast
Quarterback
NYG backup QB started
Not on the final injury report
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
MIA @ 
PHI
JAX @ 
LV @ 
CLE @ 
IND
BUF @ 
NE
TB
BAL
PIT @ 
ARI @ 
SEA
GB @