Raiders @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sun, Oct 22, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Chicago Bears

Weather at kickoff52°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

3-3 · Power #23

final

Final

Chicago Bears

1-5 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

LV -1.5

✓ CHI W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

LV 22–20 CHI

✗ LV (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseLV -1.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLV -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close37.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseLV -1.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LV as a 1.5-point road favorite at CHI, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 30–12 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 42 points went over 37.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 53%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 45%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 1.1 against an average line of 1.8; 34.9 points a game (usually 45.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSH @ CHI 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-1	12–7	W	U37.5
Close	TEN @ HOU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	17–10	W	U39.5
Close	DEN @ CAR 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-1	10–23	L	U36
Close	DEN @ LAR 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	14–51	L	O36.5
Close	WSH @ NYG 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread	-1.5	20–20	L	U40.5
Close	WSH @ HOU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest	-3	23–10	W	U41
Loose	ATL @ CAR 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread	-2.5	15–25	L	U41.5
Loose	MIA @ NO 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar spread & total	-1.5	20–3	W	U37.5
Loose	NE @ NYJ 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & rest	-1.5	22–17	W	U40
Loose	CHI @ DET 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar team ratings	-3	16–14	L	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV LLLWW	3-3	50%	1-2	2-1
CHI –––WL	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: LV away, as favorite; CHI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV –UUUU	0-5	0%	3-3
CHI –––OU	1-1	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LVlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	0-5 0%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LV 3–6 CHI CHI leads · 9 games since 1999 · CHI has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV0.0 →−2.3▼ 2.3#25

CHI−5.2 →−3.2▲ 2.0#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

CHI

#21

Offense

CHI better ▶

#18

#22

Defense

◀ LV better

#28

−1.2 #30

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #28

60 plays #27

Pace

CHI faster ▶

62 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Advantage: LV offense

	LV off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	16.7 #28	29.3 #30	Even
Yards / play	4.89 #23	5.76 #29	LV
EPA / play	−0.08 #21	+0.11 #31	LV
Success rate	44% #12	45% #22	LV

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #19	21.8 #19	Even
Yards / play	5.25 #14	5.14 #17	Even
EPA / play	−0.09 #24	+0.03 #25	Even
Success rate	44% #14	46% #26	CHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	5.2 #14	4.3 #28	9.5 #22	1.0 #31	6.2 #17	7.2 #30
CHI allowed	4.5 #17	8.7 #26	13.2 #23	8.8 #32	7.3 #22	16.2 #29

CHI scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	3.3 #20	8.3 #10	11.7 #13	2.5 #26	7.2 #12	9.7 #18
LV allowed	5.0 #21	7.8 #22	12.8 #20	5.7 #25	3.3 #2	9.0 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.