Vikings @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sun, Oct 15, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Chicago Bears · Division game

Weather at kickoff53°F17 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

1-4 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

Chicago Bears

1-4 · Power #18

final

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

✓ MIN W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 28–25 CHI

✓ MIN (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIN -3.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIN -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIN -3.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like MIN as a 3.5-point road favorite at CHI, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 19–13; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 3 similar games. 32 points stayed under 43.5, as in 0 of 3.

Favorite won

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

3 of 3100%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 0.7 against an average line of 3.7; 58 points a game (usually 46.7). When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	GB @ CHI 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread & situation	-4	28–19	W	O45.5
Loose	DET @ CAR 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar total & spread	-3	23–37	L	O43.5
Loose	MIA @ CHI 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & situation	-4	35–32	L	O46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN –––––	0-0	—	—	—
CHI ––––W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: MIN away, as favorite; CHI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN –––––	0-0	—	1-4
CHI ––––O	1-0	100%	1-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 5	1-4 20%	0-0 —	0-0 —
CHIlast 5	1-4 20%	1-0 100%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIN 29–26 CHI MIN leads · 55 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN−0.3 →−2.2▼ 1.9#21

CHI−5.2 →−3.3▲ 1.9#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

MIN

Longer bar = better

CHI

#12

Offense

Even

#14

#19

Defense

◀ MIN better

#29

−1.8 #32

Turnovers

CHI better ▶

−0.8 #25

62 plays #23

Pace

Even

61 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN offense

	MIN off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #16	31.4 #30	MIN
Yards / play	5.88 #4	6.06 #30	MIN
EPA / play	−0.03 #16	+0.16 #31	MIN
Success rate	45% #10	45% #24	MIN

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #12	24.4 #23	CHI
Yards / play	5.46 #11	5.05 #12	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #15	+0.03 #24	CHI
Success rate	43% #16	44% #18	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	0.6 #31	8.8 #8	9.4 #21	5.6 #7	7.0 #15	12.6 #8
CHI allowed	4.8 #18	8.6 #24	13.4 #22	9.2 #32	8.8 #26	18.0 #32

CHI scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	4.0 #18	8.8 #8	12.8 #10	3.0 #24	7.2 #14	10.2 #17
MIN allowed	5.4 #21	7.2 #15	12.6 #21	8.4 #31	3.4 #3	11.8 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.