Colts @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sun, Oct 15, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Jacksonville Jaguars · Division game

Weather at kickoff70°F9 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

3-2 · Power #21

final

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

3-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

JAX -3.5

✓ JAX W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 24–28 JAX

✓ JAX (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseJAX -3.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJAX -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseJAX -3.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 3.5-point home favorite against IND, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 37–20; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 5 against an average line of 3.1; 41.6 points a game (usually 46.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NE vs MIA 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3	23–21	L	O41.5
Very close	SF vs WSH 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-3	15–23	L	U43.5
Very close	MIN vs NYJ 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-3	27–22	W	O44
Very close	TB vs NO 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	17–16	L	U41
Very close	CIN vs PIT 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	41–10	W	O44
Very close	TEN vs JAX 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	22–36	L	O41.5
Very close	NE vs SF 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	6–33	L	U45
Very close	NO vs CAR 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	7–10	L	U41.5
Very close	PIT vs CIN 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	10–24	L	U42
Very close	CLE vs NE 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	15–38	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND –––––	0-0	—	—	—
JAX –––––	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: IND away, as underdog; JAX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND –––––	0-0	—	3-2
JAX –––––	0-0	—	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 5	3-2 60%	0-0 —	0-0 —
JAXlast 5	3-2 60%	0-0 —	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

IND 27–22 JAX IND leads · 49 games since 2000 · JAX has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 10 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 31 @ Indianapolis Colts 21	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−3.9 →+2.2▲ 6.1#13

JAX+3.9 →+4.0▲ 0.1#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

IND

Longer bar = better

JAX

#16

Offense

Even

#18

#21

Defense

JAX better ▶

#15

+0.6 #11

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #10

66 plays #12

Pace

JAX faster ▶

70 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Even matchup

	IND off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #10	20.4 #12	Even
Yards / play	5.24 #15	5.73 #26	IND
EPA / play	−0.04 #17	−0.04 #12	JAX
Success rate	41% #23	42% #10	JAX

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #20	23.0 #22	Even
Yards / play	5.15 #17	5.37 #19	Even
EPA / play	−0.09 #22	−0.02 #16	IND
Success rate	44% #14	45% #25	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	4.2 #17	6.8 #13	11.0 #16	7.0 #4	5.4 #20	12.4 #9
JAX allowed	1.4 #3	6.2 #11	7.6 #5	7.0 #29	5.8 #16	12.8 #24

JAX scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	5.0 #14	4.6 #26	9.6 #20	2.6 #26	8.8 #6	11.4 #11
IND allowed	7.6 #30	3.8 #4	11.4 #17	4.6 #22	5.8 #16	10.4 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.