Cardinals @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sun, Oct 15, 2023, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Los Angeles Rams · Division game

Weather at kickoff87°F9 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

1-4 · Power #28

final

Final

Los Angeles Rams

2-3 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAR -7.5

✓ LAR W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

ARI 23–31 LAR

✓ LAR (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAR -7.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLAR -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAR -7.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 7.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 26–9; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.7 against an average line of 7.7; 45.3 points a game (usually 47.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL vs IND 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	31–25	L	O46.5
Very close	BAL vs CLE 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	23–20	L	U46.5
Very close	LAR vs SEA 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & spread	-7	20–10	W	U47
Very close	GB vs WSH 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-8.5	24–10	W	U48
Very close	GB vs NYJ 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8	10–27	L	U44.5
Very close	SF vs ATL 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & total	-8.5	31–13	W	U48
Very close	TB vs CAR 2020 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & total	-8	31–17	W	O47
Very close	NO vs LAC 2020 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	30–27	L	O48.5
Very close	IND vs CIN 2020 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	31–27	L	O45.5
Very close	GB vs CLE 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & spread	-8	24–22	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI W––––	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0
LAR –––––	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; LAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI U––––	0-1	0%	1-4
LAR –––––	0-0	—	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIlast 5	1-4 20%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%
LARlast 5	2-3 40%	0-0 —	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARI 21–29 LAR LAR leads · 50 games since 2002 · ARI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI−0.4 →−3.0▼ 2.6#25

LAR+7.8 →+2.7▼ 5.1#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ARI

Longer bar = better

LAR

#15

Offense

Even

#12

#28

Defense

LAR better ▶

#17

+0.2 #15

Turnovers

◀ ARI better

−0.4 #21

59 plays #26

Pace

LAR faster ▶

68 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Even matchup

	ARI off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #18	21.6 #16	Even
Yards / play	5.58 #9	5.28 #17	ARI
EPA / play	−0.02 #13	+0.03 #23	ARI
Success rate	42% #18	43% #13	LAR

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #14	27.2 #27	LAR
Yards / play	5.34 #14	5.54 #23	LAR
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	+0.08 #28	LAR
Success rate	45% #12	51% #32	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	3.8 #19	11.8 #2	15.6 #8	4.6 #11	1.4 #32	6.0 #32
LAR allowed	3.4 #12	7.2 #16	10.6 #12	4.2 #19	6.8 #19	11.0 #19

LAR scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	6.8 #7	6.0 #20	12.8 #10	3.2 #24	5.2 #21	8.4 #24
ARI allowed	5.4 #23	6.2 #12	11.6 #17	4.8 #22	10.8 #32	15.6 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.