Broncos @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Kansas City Chiefs · Division game

Weather at kickoff70°F13 mphgusts 29DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Denver Broncos

1-4 · Power #25

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

4-1 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -9.5

✓ KC W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 19–29 KC

✓ KC (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -9.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKC -9.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -9.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 9.5-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 19–8; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16 against an average line of 9.4; 53.8 points a game (usually 47). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BAL vs DAL 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-8.5	34–17	W	O46
Close	GB vs WSH 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-8.5	24–10	W	U48
Close	TB vs MIA 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-11	45–17	W	O48
Close	PHI vs WSH 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & situation	-8.5	34–31	L	O44.5
Loose	IND vs NYJ 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-10	45–30	W	O45.5
Loose	SF vs ATL 2021 · Week 15 · loose · similar total & situation	-8.5	31–13	W	U48
Loose	GB vs PHI 2020 · Week 13 · loose · similar total & situation	-8.5	30–16	W	U50
Loose	IND vs JAX 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar total & season form	-10.5	23–17	L	U48
Loose	DAL vs WSH 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar spread	-10	56–14	W	O46
Loose	MIN vs JAX 2020 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread	-10	27–24	L	P51

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LL–––	0-2	0%	—	—
KC –––––	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: DEN away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN U––––	0-1	0%	1-4
KC –––––	0-0	—	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	1-4 20%	0-2 0%	0-1 0%
KClast 5	4-1 80%	0-0 —	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DEN 24–31 KC KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN0.0 →−4.0▼ 4.0#28

KC−1.7 →+5.7▲ 7.4#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

DEN

Longer bar = better

#11

Offense

KC better ▶

#32

Defense

KC better ▶

−0.6 #23

Turnovers

KC better ▶

−0.4 #19

57 plays #31

Pace

KC faster ▶

66 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	DEN off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #10	16.0 #5	KC
Yards / play	5.78 #7	4.86 #8	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #13	−0.11 #8	KC
Success rate	43% #15	40% #4	KC

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #9	36.2 #32	KC
Yards / play	5.76 #8	6.95 #32	KC
EPA / play	+0.12 #4	+0.23 #32	KC
Success rate	45% #10	49% #30	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	8.2 #2	5.2 #23	13.4 #10	2.0 #28	8.8 #6	10.8 #15
KC allowed	2.0 #5	5.6 #8	7.6 #4	3.0 #10	5.4 #13	8.4 #10

KC scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	6.2 #10	11.4 #4	17.6 #5	6.2 #6	1.8 #31	8.0 #27
DEN allowed	5.8 #25	11.8 #32	17.6 #31	7.6 #29	11.0 #32	18.6 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.