Commanders @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sun, Oct 1, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Philadelphia Eagles · Division game

Weather at kickoff77°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

2-1 · Power #32

final

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

3-0 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

PHI -8.5

✓ WSH W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 25–34 PHI

✓ PHI (79%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePHI -8.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePHI -8.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePHI -8.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as an 8.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 9, covered 9, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 34–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 18.2 against an average line of 9.2; 42.2 points a game (usually 48.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BAL vs DAL 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-8.5	34–17	W	O46
Close	DAL vs WSH 2021 · Week 16 · close · similar total & rest	-10	56–14	W	O46
Close	GB vs WSH 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-8.5	24–10	W	U48
Close	LAC vs NYG 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-9	37–21	W	O43.5
Close	BAL vs NYG 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Close	TEN vs JAX 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-8.5	20–0	W	U45
Close	SF vs ATL 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & rest	-8.5	31–13	W	U48
Close	MIA vs NYJ 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-8.5	24–0	W	U46
Loose	KC vs PIT 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar total	-10.5	36–10	W	O44.5
Loose	TEN vs HOU 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar total	-10	13–22	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-1
PHI –––	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH U––	0-1	0%	2-1
PHI –––	0-0	—	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	0-1 0%
PHIlast 3	3-0 100%	0-0 —	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSH 21–35 PHI PHI leads · 56 games since 1999 · PHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH+0.4 →−1.0▼ 1.4#16

PHI0.0 →+5.8▲ 5.8#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

WSH

Longer bar = better

PHI

#23

Offense

PHI better ▶

#19

Defense

PHI better ▶

#13

−1.0 #25

Turnovers

PHI better ▶

+1.3 #5

61 plays #22

Pace

PHI faster ▶

71 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: PHI defense

	WSH off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #21	19.7 #11	PHI
Yards / play	4.76 #21	5.25 #15	PHI
EPA / play	−0.20 #29	−0.12 #9	PHI
Success rate	42% #19	42% #15	Even

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PHI offense

	PHI off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #7	28.7 #27	PHI
Yards / play	5.39 #11	5.38 #20	PHI
EPA / play	+0.04 #9	+0.01 #21	PHI
Success rate	47% #6	40% #9	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	3.3 #19	4.7 #26	8.0 #24	2.3 #24	9.0 #6	11.3 #13
PHI allowed	0.0 #1	8.0 #19	8.0 #8	2.3 #8	9.3 #24	11.7 #16

PHI scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	7.3 #5	6.7 #14	14.0 #11	8.7 #3	5.3 #23	14.0 #5
WSH allowed	9.0 #32	7.7 #17	16.7 #29	2.0 #5	10.0 #26	12.0 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.