Mon, Oct 2, 2023, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 4 · at New York Giants
Weather at kickoff65°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›
2-1 · Power #20
24
▲ winner
Final
@
1-2 · Power #30
3
final
Closing spread
—
 
Total
—
 
Model before kickoff
SEA 30–29 NYG
✓ SEA (54%) won
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Market

Open → close
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
Seattle Seahawks have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
SEA−7.8 →−3.9▲ 3.9#27
NYG−9.1 →−5.1▲ 4.0#29
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

SEA
Longer bar = better
NYG
#6
Offense
◀ SEA better
#26
#26
Defense
Even
#26
+0.7 #11
Turnovers
◀ SEA better
−1.7 #29
61 plays #21
Pace
◀ SEA faster
59 plays #25
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When SEA has the ball
Advantage: SEA offense
SEA offNYG defEdge
Points / game 29.0 #6 32.7 #30 SEA
Yards / play 5.42 #12 5.62 #23 SEA
EPA / play +0.14 #4 +0.15 #30 SEA
Success rate 52% #3 45% #21 SEA
When NYG has the ball
Even matchup
NYG offSEA defEdge
Points / game 14.3 #30 29.3 #27 Even
Yards / play 4.27 #30 5.63 #24 SEA
EPA / play −0.15 #25 +0.10 #29 Even
Success rate 41% #20 46% #25 NYG

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
SEA scoring against the NYG defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
SEA scored
4.3
#15
6.3
#16
10.7
#16
6.7
#7
9.7
#5
16.3
#2
NYG allowed
8.7
#31
12.3
#31
21.0
#32
6.0
#25
5.7
#15
11.7
#19
NYG scoring against the SEA defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
NYG scored
1.0
#28
1.0
#32
2.0
#32
6.7
#7
5.7
#21
12.3
#9
SEA allowed
5.7
#21
5.7
#8
11.3
#17
5.7
#24
12.3
#32
18.0
#31

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
NYG +1.8
home-field points in the model
Weather
65° · 5 mph
gusts 8 mph · at kickoff
Rest
SEA8d
NYG11d
NYG +3 days
Tempo
Slow 121 plays
slowavg 127fast
Travel
SEA 2,396 mi
3 time zones