Broncos @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sun, Oct 1, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Chicago Bears

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Denver Broncos

0-3 · Power #25

▲ winner

Final

Chicago Bears

0-3 · Power #18

final

Closing spread

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Total

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Model before kickoff

DEN 37–24 CHI

✓ DEN (88%) won

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LL–	0-2	0%	—	—
CHI –––	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: DEN away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN U––	0-1	0%	0-3
CHI –––	0-0	—	0-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 3	0-3 0%	0-2 0%	0-1 0%
CHIlast 3	0-3 0%	0-0 —	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DEN 3–3 CHI Series tied · 6 games since 2003 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN0.0 →−1.6▼ 1.6#18

CHI−5.2 →−15.3▼ 10.1#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

DEN

Longer bar = better

CHI

#15

Offense

◀ DEN better

#27

#32

Defense

CHI better ▶

#28

−1.3 #28

Turnovers

Even

−1.3 #27

60 plays #24

Pace

◀ DEN faster

57 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: DEN offense

	DEN off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #16	35.3 #31	DEN
Yards / play	5.71 #7	6.02 #30	DEN
EPA / play	−0.04 #18	+0.21 #31	DEN
Success rate	42% #20	45% #19	Even

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	15.7 #26	40.7 #32	CHI
Yards / play	4.36 #28	7.16 #32	Even
EPA / play	−0.21 #30	+0.36 #32	Even
Success rate	40% #25	51% #32	CHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	9.0 #1	6.7 #14	15.7 #7	1.0 #29	6.3 #17	7.3 #27
CHI allowed	5.7 #22	13.3 #32	19.0 #30	9.3 #30	7.0 #20	16.3 #29

CHI scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	3.3 #19	2.0 #29	5.3 #28	2.7 #23	7.7 #12	10.3 #20
DEN allowed	8.0 #30	11.7 #30	19.7 #31	7.0 #27	14.0 #32	21.0 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.