Ravens @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sun, Oct 1, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Cleveland Browns · Division game

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Baltimore Ravens

2-1 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Cleveland Browns

2-1 · Power #8

final

Closing spread

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Total

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Model before kickoff

BAL 15–24 CLE

✗ CLE (79%) lost

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL –––	0-0	—	—	—
CLE –––	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: BAL away; CLE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL –––	0-0	—	2-1
CLE –––	0-0	—	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALlast 3	2-1 67%	0-0 —	0-0 —
CLElast 3	2-1 67%	0-0 —	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BAL 39–16 CLE BAL leads · 55 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+2.2 →+1.6▼ 0.6#9

CLE+6.0 →+8.3▲ 2.3#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

BAL

Longer bar = better

CLE

#11

Offense

◀ BAL better

#16

Defense

CLE better ▶

−0.7 #23

Turnovers

◀ BAL better

−1.7 #29

67 plays #13

Pace

CLE faster ▶

73 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	BAL off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #14	10.7 #1	CLE
Yards / play	5.22 #14	3.23 #1	CLE
EPA / play	+0.02 #11	−0.43 #1	CLE
Success rate	50% #5	25% #1	Even

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	CLE off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #12	18.3 #7	BAL
Yards / play	5.00 #15	4.12 #2	BAL
EPA / play	−0.12 #21	−0.14 #6	BAL
Success rate	43% #17	39% #5	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	7.0 #6	2.0 #29	9.0 #19	9.7 #1	5.0 #25	14.7 #4
CLE allowed	2.3 #6	4.0 #6	6.3 #4	2.0 #5	2.3 #2	4.3 #3

CLE scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	2.0 #23	10.3 #5	12.3 #12	6.0 #9	6.0 #18	12.0 #11
BAL allowed	0.0 #1	8.7 #24	8.7 #10	3.3 #14	5.3 #12	8.7 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.