Dolphins @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sun, Oct 1, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Buffalo Bills · Division game

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Miami Dolphins

3-0 · Power #7

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

2-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

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Total

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Model before kickoff

MIA 34–34 BUF

✓ BUF (56%) won

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA –––	0-0	—	—	—
BUF –WW	2-0	100%	1-0	—

Venue/role: MIA away; BUF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA –––	0-0	—	3-0
BUF –––	0-0	—	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 3	3-0 100%	0-0 —	0-0 —
BUFlast 3	2-1 67%	2-0 100%	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIA 20–35 BUF BUF leads · 55 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+2.1 →+10.6▲ 8.5#2

BUF−1.0 →+10.1▲ 11.1#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MIA

Longer bar = better

BUF

Offense

◀ MIA better

#21

Defense

BUF better ▶

+0.7 #14

Turnovers

BUF better ▶

+1.3 #6

66 plays #17

Pace

BUF faster ▶

69 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	43.3 #1	11.7 #2	Even
Yards / play	8.38 #1	5.31 #18	MIA
EPA / play	+0.40 #1	−0.31 #2	Even
Success rate	56% #1	40% #8	MIA

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #2	23.7 #21	BUF
Yards / play	5.56 #9	5.26 #16	BUF
EPA / play	+0.15 #3	−0.05 #16	BUF
Success rate	51% #3	49% #31	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	8.0 #3	16.0 #1	24.0 #1	7.0 #4	12.3 #1	19.3 #1
BUF allowed	2.3 #6	2.0 #2	4.3 #2	1.0 #2	4.3 #8	5.3 #4

BUF scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	6.7 #8	10.0 #7	16.7 #6	2.3 #24	11.3 #2	13.7 #7
MIA allowed	4.7 #21	6.3 #12	11.0 #15	2.3 #8	10.3 #28	12.7 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.