Sun, Oct 8, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Miami Dolphins
Weather at kickoff86°F4 mphgusts 13Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›
1-3 · Power #30
16
final
Final
@
3-1 · Power #7
31
▲ winner
Closing spread
—
 
Total
—
 
Model before kickoff
NYG 22–41 MIA
✓ MIA (94%) won
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Market

Open → close
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
New York Giants have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
NYG−9.1 →−7.8▲ 1.3#30
MIA+2.1 →+6.0▲ 3.9#5
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

NYG
Longer bar = better
MIA
#31
Offense
MIA better ▶
#1
#24
Defense
◀ NYG better
#28
−2.0 #31
Turnovers
MIA better ▶
0.0 #18
63 plays #18
Pace
Even
64 plays #16
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When NYG has the ball
Even matchup
NYG offMIA defEdge
Points / game 11.5 #32 29.8 #28 Even
Yards / play 4.00 #32 5.72 #25 MIA
EPA / play −0.24 #31 +0.05 #26 MIA
Success rate 39% #28 51% #32 Even
When MIA has the ball
Advantage: MIA offense
MIA offNYG defEdge
Points / game 37.5 #1 30.5 #29 MIA
Yards / play 8.02 #1 5.60 #22 MIA
EPA / play +0.30 #1 +0.09 #28 MIA
Success rate 54% #1 43% #17 MIA

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
NYG scoring against the MIA defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
NYG scored
0.8
#28
1.5
#31
2.3
#32
5.0
#8
4.3
#25
9.3
#21
MIA allowed
7.0
#26
9.0
#27
16.0
#27
4.3
#17
9.5
#27
13.8
#27
MIA scoring against the NYG defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
MIA scored
7.8
#3
13.8
#1
21.5
#1
6.8
#6
9.3
#5
16.0
#2
NYG allowed
8.3
#30
11.0
#30
19.3
#31
6.3
#26
5.0
#11
11.3
#18

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
MIA +1.8
home-field points in the model
Weather
86° · 4 mph
gusts 13 mph · 0.004 in rain · at kickoff
Rest
NYG6d
MIA7d
MIA +1 day
Tempo
Average 127 plays
slowavg 127fast