Bears @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Thu, Oct 5, 2023, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Washington Commanders

Weather at kickoff69°F4 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

0-4 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Washington Commanders

2-2 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

WSH -6

✓ CHI W

Total

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 24–30 WSH

✗ WSH (72%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWSH -6

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWSH -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWSH -6

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSH as a 6-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 40–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 45, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 6.1; 41.8 points a game (usually 47.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PHI vs NYG 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-5	22–21	L	U44.5
Loose	MIA vs HOU 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar total & situation	-4	17–9	W	U45
Loose	CIN vs JAX 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-7	24–21	L	U46
Loose	PIT vs DET 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & situation	-6	16–16	L	U40.5
Loose	NE vs NYJ 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & spread	-7	54–13	W	O42.5
Loose	HOU vs CIN 2020 · Week 16 · loose · similar total & situation	-7	31–37	L	O45.5
Loose	ATL vs DET 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation & season form	-7.5	20–16	L	U42.5
Loose	SEA vs JAX 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar total & situation	-4	31–7	W	U44.5
Loose	MIA vs PIT 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & total	-7	16–10	L	U44
Loose	LAC vs CAR 2020 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & situation	-6	16–21	L	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI ––––	0-0	—	—	—
WSH LWLW	2-2	50%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; WSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI ––––	0-0	—	0-4
WSH U––O	1-1	50%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 4	0-4 0%	0-0 —	0-0 —
WSHlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CHI 5–10 WSH WSH leads · 15 games since 1999 · CHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−5.2 →−11.5▼ 6.3#32

WSH+0.4 →−1.5▼ 1.9#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

CHI

Longer bar = better

WSH

#20

Offense

Even

#19

#30

Defense

WSH better ▶

#23

−1.5 #28

Turnovers

Even

−0.8 #25

61 plays #22

Pace

WSH faster ▶

64 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #22	30.0 #29	CHI
Yards / play	5.05 #16	5.60 #23	CHI
EPA / play	−0.12 #23	+0.05 #27	Even
Success rate	43% #17	43% #14	Even

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #17	34.3 #31	WSH
Yards / play	4.81 #23	6.11 #31	WSH
EPA / play	−0.08 #18	+0.24 #31	WSH
Success rate	42% #18	46% #26	WSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	2.5 #22	6.8 #15	9.3 #20	3.8 #18	5.8 #19	9.5 #20
WSH allowed	8.5 #31	6.5 #13	15.0 #25	4.3 #16	10.0 #28	14.3 #28

WSH scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	4.3 #16	6.0 #18	10.3 #17	1.8 #28	10.3 #1	12.0 #10
CHI allowed	6.0 #22	10.0 #28	16.0 #27	8.8 #31	9.5 #26	18.3 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.