Packers @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Mon, Oct 9, 2023, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Las Vegas Raiders

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

2-2 · Power #10

final

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

1-3 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

LV -1

✓ LV W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 26–28 LV

✓ LV (56%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLV -1

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLV -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLV -1

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LV as a 1-point home favorite against GB, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: LV won 17–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 43.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.9 against an average line of 1.5; 38.7 points a game (usually 44.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SEA vs ATL 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-1	23–27	L	O43.5
Close	LV vs DEN 2021 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & season form	-1	17–13	W	U41.5
Close	ATL vs PIT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-1	16–19	L	U42.5
Close	IND vs JAX 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-1	34–27	W	O41
Close	WSH vs SEA 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-1	17–15	W	U47
Close	PIT vs CLE 2021 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & total	-1	26–14	W	U43.5
Close	NYG vs WSH 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-2	20–19	L	U42.5
Close	ATL vs CAR 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	13–19	L	U46.5
Close	CLE vs PHI 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar total	-2.5	22–17	W	U45.5
Loose	WSH vs CIN 2020 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread	-1.5	20–9	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB ––––	0-0	—	—	—
LV WLLL	1-3	25%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: GB away, as underdog; LV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB ––––	0-0	—	2-2
LV U–UU	0-3	0%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GBlast 4	2-2 50%	0-0 —	0-0 —
LVlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

GB 6–1 LV GB leads · 7 games since 1999 · LV has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+5.2 →−6.2▼ 11.4#27

LV0.0 →−2.3▼ 2.3#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

#17

Offense

◀ GB better

#22

#20

Defense

◀ GB better

#23

+0.3 #14

Turnovers

◀ GB better

−2.3 #32

58 plays #28

Pace

Even

58 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #10	25.3 #23	GB
Yards / play	4.86 #25	5.29 #17	LV
EPA / play	0.00 #11	+0.09 #28	GB
Success rate	41% #23	45% #23	Even

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #30	24.0 #21	GB
Yards / play	4.90 #23	5.02 #9	GB
EPA / play	−0.10 #24	+0.01 #22	Even
Success rate	44% #12	46% #26	LV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	2.5 #24	3.3 #29	5.8 #30	9.0 #1	10.3 #2	19.3 #1
LV allowed	6.8 #25	11.0 #31	17.8 #31	4.3 #19	3.3 #2	7.5 #6

LV scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	7.0 #6	1.5 #32	8.5 #25	0.8 #31	6.3 #18	7.0 #29
GB allowed	6.8 #25	8.0 #19	14.8 #25	2.8 #9	6.5 #19	9.3 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.