Packers @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sun, Oct 22, 2023, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Denver Broncos

Weather at kickoff74°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

2-3 · Power #10

final

Final

Denver Broncos

1-5 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEN -2.5

✓ GB W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 26–28 DEN

✓ DEN (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseDEN -2.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDEN -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseDEN -2.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 2.5-point home favorite against GB, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 19–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 54%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 2; 42.5 points a game (usually 46.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIA vs IND 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	17–27	L	O42
Close	LV vs GB 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-1	17–13	W	U43.5
Close	PIT vs CLE 2021 · Week 17 · close · similar total & situation	-1	26–14	W	U43.5
Close	TEN vs IND 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-3	19–10	W	U43
Close	SEA vs ATL 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & situation	-1	23–27	L	O43.5
Close	ATL vs CAR 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	13–19	L	U46.5
Close	PIT vs TEN 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar total & situation	-1	19–13	W	U44
Close	DET vs WSH 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-3	30–27	P	O45.5
Close	LV vs DEN 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-3	32–23	W	O45.5
Close	PHI vs LAR 2020 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	19–37	L	O46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB ––––L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1
DEN L–––L	0-3	0%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: GB away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB ––––U	0-1	0%	2-3
DEN ––––U	0-2	0%	1-5

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 33% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GBlast 5	2-3 40%	0-1 0%	0-1 0%
DENlast 6	1-5 17%	0-3 0%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

GB 4–4 DEN Series tied · 8 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+5.2 →−0.9▼ 6.1#20

DEN0.0 →−3.9▼ 3.9#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

DEN

#17

Offense

Even

#15

#21

Defense

◀ GB better

#32

−0.2 #20

Turnovers

◀ GB better

−0.8 #26

58 plays #29

Pace

Even

56 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #13	33.3 #32	GB
Yards / play	4.89 #22	6.71 #32	GB
EPA / play	−0.04 #14	+0.19 #32	GB
Success rate	42% #18	49% #31	GB

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: DEN offense

	DEN off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #18	22.6 #22	Even
Yards / play	5.52 #10	4.90 #10	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #16	−0.01 #23	DEN
Success rate	43% #16	46% #28	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	2.6 #25	2.6 #32	5.2 #32	9.2 #1	8.2 #5	17.4 #1
DEN allowed	5.3 #21	11.5 #32	16.8 #32	6.8 #29	9.7 #31	16.5 #31

DEN scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	6.8 #5	4.3 #28	11.2 #18	1.7 #30	8.7 #3	10.3 #13
GB allowed	5.4 #22	8.4 #25	13.8 #26	2.2 #7	6.6 #19	8.8 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.