Lions @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sun, Oct 22, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Baltimore Ravens

Weather at kickoff60°F16 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Detroit Lions

5-1 · Power #6

final

Final

Baltimore Ravens

4-2 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAL -3.5

✓ BAL W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 21–24 BAL

✓ BAL (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -3.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBAL -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -3.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 3.5-point home favorite against DET, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 38–6; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.2 against an average line of 3.1; 53.6 points a game (usually 46.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs SF 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	31–7	W	U44.5
Very close	NE vs NO 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	13–28	L	U44
Very close	NE vs CIN 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	18–22	L	U41.5
Very close	BAL vs MIA 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	38–42	L	O43.5
Very close	TEN vs NO 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	23–21	L	O42.5
Very close	PHI vs NO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	40–29	W	O42
Very close	BUF vs LAR 2020 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2	35–32	W	O46.5
Very close	LAC vs CLE 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	47–42	W	O47
Very close	SF vs DAL 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	19–12	W	U46.5
Close	LAR vs SF 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	20–17	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET ––––W	1-0	100%	1-0	—
BAL ––––W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: DET away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET ––––U	0-1	0%	5-1
BAL ––––U	0-1	0%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DETlast 6	5-1 83%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%
BALlast 6	4-2 67%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DET 2–5 BAL BAL leads · 7 games since 2005 · DET has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.7 →+3.7▲ 2.0#3

BAL+2.2 →+2.6▲ 0.4#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

DET

Longer bar = better

BAL

Offense

◀ DET better

#12

Defense

BAL better ▶

+0.3 #13

Turnovers

◀ DET better

−0.2 #17

67 plays #8

Pace

◀ DET faster

65 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Even matchup

	DET off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #4	15.2 #4	Even
Yards / play	5.75 #4	4.02 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.09 #5	−0.19 #2	Even
Success rate	47% #7	37% #2	BAL

When BAL has the ball

Even matchup

	BAL off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #16	18.8 #9	DET
Yards / play	5.19 #15	4.69 #4	DET
EPA / play	−0.02 #12	−0.12 #8	Even
Success rate	47% #5	41% #10	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	8.0 #1	8.5 #9	16.5 #4	3.5 #21	8.0 #8	11.5 #10
BAL allowed	1.0 #1	4.8 #4	5.8 #1	3.3 #12	5.5 #13	8.8 #12

BAL scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	6.8 #4	5.8 #20	12.7 #10	4.8 #9	4.7 #26	9.5 #20
DET allowed	1.7 #3	5.0 #5	6.7 #3	4.0 #18	7.2 #21	11.2 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.