Bills @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sun, Oct 22, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at New England Patriots · Division game

Weather at kickoff57°F13 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

4-2 · Power #4

final

Final

New England Patriots

1-5 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -7.5

✓ NE W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 27–19 NE

✗ BUF (75%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -7.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBUF -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -7.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 7.5-point road favorite at NE, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 29–25 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 39.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.6 against an average line of 7.2; 49.8 points a game (usually 47.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NO @ PHI 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-8	21–24	L	O42.5
Close	ARI @ CHI 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	33–22	W	O43
Close	DAL @ WSH 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	6–26	L	U41
Close	SF @ CAR 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-6.5	37–15	W	O39.5
Close	NE @ MIA 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	24–33	L	O41
Close	BUF @ CHI 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & total	-9	35–13	W	O40.5
Close	LAR @ WSH 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	30–10	W	U45
Loose	BAL @ NE 2020 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7	17–23	L	U44
Loose	PHI @ NYG 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread & rest	-7.5	48–22	W	O44
Loose	BUF @ MIA 2020 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	31–28	L	O42

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WW––L	2-1	67%	1-0	2-1
NE ––––L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; NE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF ––––U	0-1	0%	4-2
NE ––––U	0-1	0%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFlast 6	4-2 67%	2-1 67%	0-1 0%
NElast 6	1-5 17%	0-1 0%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BUF 16–40 NE NE leads · 56 games since 1999 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF−1.0 →+3.4▲ 4.4#5

NE0.0 →−2.8▼ 2.8#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

BUF

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ BUF better

#30

#12

Defense

Even

#14

+0.7 #11

Turnovers

◀ BUF better

−1.3 #31

63 plays #17

Pace

Even

63 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #3	25.3 #25	BUF
Yards / play	5.98 #2	4.75 #7	BUF
EPA / play	+0.17 #2	−0.03 #19	BUF
Success rate	52% #2	40% #5	Even

When NE has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	NE off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	12.0 #31	14.8 #3	BUF
Yards / play	4.46 #29	5.46 #23	BUF
EPA / play	−0.23 #32	−0.12 #7	BUF
Success rate	40% #27	44% #16	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.7 #10	9.0 #6	14.7 #7	2.8 #25	11.3 #1	14.2 #3
NE allowed	6.5 #27	9.8 #30	16.3 #31	2.0 #7	7.0 #20	9.0 #14

NE scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	1.0 #29	4.5 #27	5.5 #30	1.7 #29	4.8 #24	6.5 #31
BUF allowed	4.7 #19	2.7 #1	7.3 #5	1.5 #2	5.0 #12	6.5 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.