Falcons @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sun, Oct 22, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Division game

Weather at kickoff80°F2 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

3-3 · Power #24

▲ winner

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3-2 · Power #14

final

Closing spread

TB -2.5

✓ ATL W

Total

37.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 22–24 TB

✗ TB (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseTB -2.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTB -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close37.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseTB -2.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 2.5-point home favorite against ATL, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ATL won 16–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 37.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 54%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 2.6; 37.1 points a game (usually 46.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NO vs LAR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	27–20	W	O39
Very close	LAR vs ARI 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	17–27	L	O38.5
Very close	IND vs PIT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	17–24	L	O39.5
Very close	BAL vs PIT 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	13–16	L	U35.5
Very close	CAR vs PIT 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	16–24	L	O37
Very close	IND vs WSH 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–17	L	U40
Very close	DEN vs ARI 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	24–15	W	O37
Very close	TB vs NO 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	17–16	L	U41
Close	PIT vs CLE 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	28–14	W	O39.5
Close	PIT vs LV 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	13–10	W	U37.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL ––––L	0-1	0%	—	—
TB ––––L	0-1	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: ATL away, as underdog; TB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL ––––U	0-1	0%	3-3
TB ––––U	0-1	0%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 6	3-3 50%	0-1 0%	0-1 0%
TBlast 5	3-2 60%	0-1 0%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ATL 25–25 TB Series tied · 50 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL+2.1 →−0.5▼ 2.6#19

TB+0.3 →−0.2▼ 0.5#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ATL

Longer bar = better

#24

Offense

Even

#23

Defense

◀ ATL better

#12

−1.0 #27

Turnovers

TB better ▶

+1.2 #2

67 plays #7

Pace

◀ ATL faster

60 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: TB defense

	ATL off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #29	17.6 #7	TB
Yards / play	4.95 #20	5.14 #16	Even
EPA / play	−0.12 #26	−0.07 #10	TB
Success rate	41% #19	43% #14	TB

When TB has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	TB off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #25	20.0 #14	ATL
Yards / play	4.84 #25	4.70 #5	ATL
EPA / play	−0.03 #13	−0.07 #11	Even
Success rate	39% #28	39% #4	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	2.8 #23	3.2 #30	6.0 #29	2.2 #27	8.3 #5	10.5 #12
TB allowed	3.2 #8	6.0 #11	9.2 #9	3.8 #17	4.6 #9	8.4 #9

TB scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	1.2 #28	7.4 #13	8.6 #25	3.4 #22	6.0 #18	9.4 #21
ATL allowed	2.7 #7	9.5 #28	12.2 #19	4.5 #21	3.3 #2	7.8 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.