Chargers @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sun, Oct 22, 2023, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Kansas City Chiefs · Division game

Weather at kickoff70°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

2-3 · Power #22

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

5-1 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -5.5

✓ KC W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 23–28 KC

✓ KC (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -5.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKC -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -5.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 5.5-point home favorite against LAC, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 31–17; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 47.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Below normal · usually 65%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Wins below normal, overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 3.2 against an average line of 5.6; 55.8 points a game (usually 47.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARI vs SEA 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	30–38	L	O48.5
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	37–48	L	O47
Very close	SF vs MIA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & spread	-5	33–17	W	O45.5
Very close	CIN vs CLE 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	23–10	W	U47
Very close	BAL vs TEN 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & spread	-6	24–30	L	O50.5
Very close	CIN vs ATL 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-6	35–17	W	O48
Very close	BUF vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total	-6	10–27	L	U48.5
Very close	BUF vs MIN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-6.5	30–33	L	O46
Very close	DEN vs LV 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5	24–34	L	O45
Very close	BAL vs CIN 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6	17–41	L	O46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC –––WL	1-1	50%	—	0-1
KC ––––W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: LAC away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC –––UU	0-2	0%	2-3
KC ––––U	0-1	0%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 5	2-3 40%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%
KClast 6	5-1 83%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAC 23–32 KC KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC−2.1 →+0.1▲ 2.2#16

KC−1.7 →+3.6▲ 5.3#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

LAC

Longer bar = better

Offense

Even

#26

Defense

KC better ▶

+1.0 #5

Turnovers

◀ LAC better

0.0 #14

66 plays #11

Pace

KC faster ▶

67 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Even matchup

	LAC off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #7	14.7 #2	KC
Yards / play	5.55 #8	4.75 #6	Even
EPA / play	+0.07 #7	−0.14 #6	Even
Success rate	45% #10	40% #7	Even

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #10	24.8 #23	KC
Yards / play	5.72 #5	5.83 #30	KC
EPA / play	+0.09 #4	+0.04 #26	KC
Success rate	46% #8	45% #24	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	6.2 #8	9.0 #7	15.2 #5	3.4 #20	6.8 #13	10.2 #15
KC allowed	1.7 #3	4.7 #4	6.3 #2	2.5 #9	5.8 #15	8.3 #8

KC scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	5.7 #9	11.2 #2	16.8 #3	5.7 #6	2.0 #31	7.7 #28
LAC allowed	4.2 #15	7.2 #17	11.4 #16	4.8 #22	8.0 #24	12.8 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.