Chiefs @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sun, Oct 29, 2023, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Denver Broncos · Division game

Weather at kickoff22°F3 mphDryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

6-1 · Power #5

final

Final

Denver Broncos

2-5 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -7

✓ DEN W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 30–22 DEN

✗ KC (75%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -7

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKC -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -7

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 7-point road favorite at DEN, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 24–9 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.4 against an average line of 7.1; 45.4 points a game (usually 47.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAR @ WSH 2020 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	30–10	W	U45
Very close	KC @ DEN 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	43–16	W	O46
Very close	TB @ PIT 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	18–20	L	U46.5
Very close	SF @ JAX 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	30–10	W	U45.5
Close	IND @ HOU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–0	W	U45
Close	PHI @ NYG 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	48–22	W	O44
Close	NO @ PHI 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-8	21–24	L	O42.5
Close	MIN @ DET 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-7	27–29	L	O47
Close	SF @ ATL 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-6	14–28	L	U46.5
Close	PHI @ IND 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-7.5	17–16	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC –––WW	2-0	100%	—	2-0
DEN –––LL	0-4	0%	0-3	0-1

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; DEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC –––UO	1-1	50%	6-1
DEN –––UU	0-3	0%	2-5

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 40% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KClast 7	6-1 86%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%
DENlast 7	2-5 29%	0-4 0%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KC 31–24 DEN KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2023	Denver Broncos 8 @ Kansas City Chiefs 19	KC -9.5	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC−1.7 →+4.6▲ 6.3#2

DEN0.0 →−3.7▼ 3.7#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

DEN

Offense

◀ KC better

#14

Defense

◀ KC better

#32

0.0 #15

Turnovers

◀ KC better

−0.6 #26

66 plays #8

Pace

◀ KC faster

55 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #6	31.0 #32	KC
Yards / play	5.97 #3	6.53 #32	KC
EPA / play	+0.12 #4	+0.18 #32	KC
Success rate	47% #6	49% #30	KC

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	DEN off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	21.1 #19	15.0 #2	KC
Yards / play	5.61 #7	4.91 #8	Even
EPA / play	−0.04 #15	−0.11 #6	KC
Success rate	43% #15	40% #5	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	5.3 #11	12.6 #2	17.9 #3	4.9 #9	2.7 #31	7.6 #29
DEN allowed	4.6 #17	9.9 #32	14.4 #29	7.3 #31	9.3 #30	16.6 #32

DEN scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	6.3 #5	4.6 #26	10.9 #19	2.4 #28	7.9 #4	10.3 #14
KC allowed	1.9 #3	6.0 #9	7.9 #3	2.1 #5	5.0 #12	7.1 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.