Bears @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sun, Oct 29, 2023, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Los Angeles Chargers

Weather at kickoff79°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

2-5 · Power #18

final

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

2-4 · Power #22

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAC -9.5

✓ LAC W

Total

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 23–32 LAC

✓ LAC (79%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAC -9.5

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLAC -9.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAC -9.5

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 9.5-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LAC won 30–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 46, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.9 against an average line of 9.4; 39.7 points a game (usually 46.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DEN vs HOU 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & rest	-10	16–9	L	U45.5
Very close	TB vs ATL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-10	21–15	L	U46
Close	GB vs NYJ 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-8	10–27	L	U44.5
Close	KC vs LV 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	48–9	W	O48
Close	MIN vs CHI 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	29–22	L	O44
Close	SEA vs ARI 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	20–10	W	U43.5
Close	LAC vs NYG 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-9	37–21	W	O43.5
Close	SEA vs NYG 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	12–17	L	U48
Close	TB vs CAR 2020 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-8	31–17	W	O47
Close	MIA vs CIN 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	19–7	W	U43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI ––WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	2-1
LAC ––WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI ––OUO	2-1	67%	2-5
LAC ––UUO	1-2	33%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 44% of games with totals 43–49 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 7	2-5 29%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%
LAClast 6	2-4 33%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CHI 4–3 LAC CHI leads · 7 games since 1999 · LAC has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−5.2 →−2.7▲ 2.5#25

LAC−2.1 →−0.3▲ 1.8#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CHI

Longer bar = better

LAC

#14

Offense

LAC better ▶

#10

#24

Defense

◀ CHI better

#29

−0.4 #25

Turnovers

LAC better ▶

+0.8 #5

63 plays #18

Pace

LAC faster ▶

65 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #13	25.8 #25	CHI
Yards / play	5.16 #16	6.10 #31	CHI
EPA / play	−0.05 #17	+0.07 #30	CHI
Success rate	45% #9	46% #28	CHI

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: LAC offense

	LAC off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #10	26.9 #28	LAC
Yards / play	5.60 #7	5.50 #24	LAC
EPA / play	+0.06 #6	+0.06 #28	LAC
Success rate	43% #15	44% #17	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	3.9 #20	8.1 #9	12.0 #14	3.1 #22	7.4 #9	10.6 #13
LAC allowed	4.0 #14	9.5 #31	13.5 #27	4.0 #16	7.8 #26	11.8 #25

LAC scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.7 #9	9.8 #4	15.5 #4	2.8 #25	5.7 #21	8.5 #26
CHI allowed	3.9 #12	7.9 #23	11.7 #16	7.6 #32	7.6 #23	15.1 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.