Chargers @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Mon, Nov 6, 2023, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 9 · at New York Jets

Weather at kickoff48°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

3-4 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

New York Jets

4-3 · Power #26

final

Closing spread

LAC -2

✓ LAC W

Total

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 25–23 NYJ

✓ LAC (58%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAC -2

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLAC -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAC -2

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 2-point road favorite at NYJ, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: LAC won 27–6; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 42, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 54%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.3 against an average line of 2.3; 40.1 points a game (usually 45.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN @ WSH 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Very close	JAX @ PIT 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	20–10	W	U41
Very close	DET @ CAR 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	23–37	L	O43.5
Very close	DAL @ NYG 2020 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	19–23	L	U43.5
Very close	LAC @ DEN 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	30–31	L	O44.5
Very close	CIN @ TEN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	20–16	W	U42.5
Very close	BAL @ CHI 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	16–13	W	U41
Very close	ATL @ CAR 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	15–25	L	U41.5
Very close	TEN @ HOU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	17–10	W	U39.5
Very close	NE @ NYJ 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	22–17	W	U40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC –WLLW	2-2	50%	0-1	2-0
NYJ –––WP	1-0-1	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: LAC away, as favorite; NYJ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC –UUOU	1-3	25%	3-4
NYJ –––UU	0-2	0%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 34% of games with totals 39–45 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 7	3-4 43%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
NYJlast 7	4-3 57%	1-0-1 100%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAC 7–5 NYJ LAC leads · 12 games since 2002 · LAC has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC−2.1 →+0.4▲ 2.5#14

NYJ+1.0 →−0.9▼ 1.9#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

LAC

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#10

Offense

◀ LAC better

#28

Defense

NYJ better ▶

+0.9 #5

Turnovers

◀ LAC better

+0.4 #10

65 plays #12

Pace

◀ LAC faster

57 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Even matchup

	LAC off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	24.9 #9	18.4 #6	Even
Yards / play	5.58 #8	4.78 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.05 #7	−0.08 #8	Even
Success rate	43% #16	40% #6	NYJ

When NYJ has the ball

Even matchup

	NYJ off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #26	24.0 #23	Even
Yards / play	4.78 #24	5.91 #31	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.21 #31	+0.04 #29	Even
Success rate	37% #32	46% #28	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	6.9 #3	9.9 #4	16.7 #4	3.3 #24	4.9 #27	8.1 #26
NYJ allowed	6.7 #32	6.3 #10	13.0 #24	2.3 #6	3.1 #1	5.4 #1

NYJ scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	1.7 #30	5.7 #22	7.4 #28	3.4 #21	5.9 #16	9.3 #20
LAC allowed	3.4 #8	9.1 #30	12.6 #23	3.4 #10	7.6 #27	11.0 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.