Sun, Nov 12, 2023, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Las Vegas Raiders
Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›
4-4 · Power #26
12
final
Final
@
4-5 · Power #23
16
▲ winner
Closing spread
Pick’em
✓ LV W
Total
36.5
▼ Under · 28 pts
Model before kickoff
NYJ 22–22 LV
✓ LV (51%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
ClosePick’em
Total36.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
ClosePick’em
Total36.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Signals

The data signal, and 4 trends and market moves behind it
Mixed signals on the spread
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Las Vegas Raiders 3-1 ATS at home
Strong against the spread at home this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-69 (48%)
Both teams trending Under (10-1 combined)
Their games this season have mostly stayed under the total. · Backtest 2023–26: 18-19 (49%)
New York Jets on a cross-country trip
New York Jets cross 3 time zones (2,228 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)
Small sample warning
New York Jets have 2 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
NYJ+1.0 →−1.7▼ 2.7#23
LV0.0 →−3.1▼ 3.1#28
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

NYJ
Longer bar = better
LV
#31
Offense
LV better ▶
#23
#6
Defense
◀ NYJ better
#19
0.0 #15
Turnovers
◀ NYJ better
−0.7 #31
60 plays #28
Pace
Even
58 plays #31
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When NYJ has the ball
Advantage: LV defense
NYJ offLV defEdge
Points / game 16.5 #30 21.4 #17 LV
Yards / play 4.58 #30 5.13 #14 LV
EPA / play −0.24 #32 −0.02 #17 LV
Success rate 36% #32 45% #26 LV
When LV has the ball
Advantage: NYJ defense
LV offNYJ defEdge
Points / game 17.3 #27 19.5 #8 NYJ
Yards / play 4.74 #28 4.64 #3 NYJ
EPA / play −0.13 #26 −0.08 #7 NYJ
Success rate 43% #12 39% #4 NYJ

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
NYJ scoring against the LV defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
NYJ scored
1.5
#31
5.4
#23
6.9
#30
3.4
#25
5.1
#25
8.5
#25
LV allowed
4.4
#19
7.4
#17
11.9
#17
5.3
#23
4.2
#5
9.6
#10
LV scoring against the NYJ defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
LV scored
4.2
#17
5.9
#20
10.1
#21
1.8
#32
5.4
#23
7.2
#29
NYJ allowed
7.6
#31
5.9
#10
13.5
#27
2.0
#4
4.0
#3
6.0
#1

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
LV +1.8
home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
NYJ6d
LV7d
LV +1 day
Tempo
Slow 118 plays
slowavg 127fast
Travel
NYJ 2,228 mi
3 time zones
Quarterback
LV backup QB started
Not on the final injury report