Sun, Nov 12, 2023, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Las Vegas Raiders
Closing spread
Pick’em
✓ LV W
Total
36.5
▼ Under · 28 pts
Model before kickoff
NYJ 22–22 LV
✓ LV (51%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
ClosePick’em
Total36.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
ClosePick’em
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close36.5
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
ClosePick’em
Total36.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Signals
The data signal, and 4 trends and market moves behind it
Mixed signals on the spread
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Las Vegas Raiders 3-1 ATS at home
Strong against the spread at home this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-69 (48%)
Both teams trending Under (10-1 combined)
Their games this season have mostly stayed under the total. · Backtest 2023–26: 18-19 (49%)
New York Jets on a cross-country trip
New York Jets cross 3 time zones (2,228 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)
Small sample warning
New York Jets have 2 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4-4 50% | 1-1-1 50% | 0-3 0% | |
| 4-5 44% | 4-5 44% | 1-7 13% |
Recent meetings
The series
NYJ 8–11 LV
LV leads · 19 games since 1999 · LV has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
NYJ+1.0 →−1.7▼ 2.7#23
LV0.0 →−3.1▼ 3.1#28
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9
Longer bar = better
#31
Offense
LV better ▶#23
#6
Defense
◀ NYJ better#19
0.0 #15
Turnovers
◀ NYJ better−0.7 #31
60 plays #28
Pace
Even58 plays #31
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| NYJ off | LV def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 16.5 #30 | 21.4 #17 | LV |
| Yards / play | 4.58 #30 | 5.13 #14 | LV |
| EPA / play | −0.24 #32 | −0.02 #17 | LV |
| Success rate | 36% #32 | 45% #26 | LV |
| LV off | NYJ def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 17.3 #27 | 19.5 #8 | NYJ |
| Yards / play | 4.74 #28 | 4.64 #3 | NYJ |
| EPA / play | −0.13 #26 | −0.08 #7 | NYJ |
| Success rate | 43% #12 | 39% #4 | NYJ |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
NYJ scoring against the LV defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1.5 #31 | 5.4 #23 | 6.9 #30 | 3.4 #25 | 5.1 #25 | 8.5 #25 | |
4.4 #19 | 7.4 #17 | 11.9 #17 | 5.3 #23 | 4.2 #5 | 9.6 #10 |
LV scoring against the NYJ defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4.2 #17 | 5.9 #20 | 10.1 #21 | 1.8 #32 | 5.4 #23 | 7.2 #29 | |
7.6 #31 | 5.9 #10 | 13.5 #27 | 2.0 #4 | 4.0 #3 | 6.0 #1 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
NYJ6d
LV7d
LV +1 day
Tempo
Slow 118 plays
slowavg 127fast
Travel
NYJ 2,228 mi
3 time zones
Quarterback
LV backup QB started
Not on the final injury report
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

