Saints @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sun, Nov 12, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Minnesota Vikings

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

5-4 · Power #11

final

Final

Minnesota Vikings

5-4 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

NO -3

✓ MIN W

Total

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 26–23 MIN

✗ NO (59%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNO -3

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNO -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNO -3

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 3-point road favorite at MIN, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 27–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 41, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.4 against an average line of 2.6; 41 points a game (usually 46.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NE @ CAR 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–6	W	U42
Very close	NE @ NYJ 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.5	22–17	W	U40
Very close	NO @ HOU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	13–20	L	U41.5
Close	MIA @ BUF 2020 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	26–56	L	O42.5
Close	NYJ @ SEA 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & spread	-2	6–23	L	U43
Close	WSH @ NYG 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total	-1.5	20–20	L	U40.5
Close	NO @ CAR 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-3	14–22	L	U41
Close	BAL @ JAX 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Close	CIN @ TEN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	20–16	W	U42.5
Close	LV @ CLE 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	16–14	L	U42

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO –LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-2
MIN –WWWW	4-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: NO away, as favorite; MIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO –UOOP	2-1-1	67%	5-4
MIN –UUUO	1-3	25%	5-4

Went over in Q4. Of 10 earlier overs in games with totals 38–44, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOlast 9	5-4 56%	2-2 50%	2-1-1 67%
MINlast 9	5-4 56%	4-0 100%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NO 7–11 MIN MIN leads · 18 games since 2000 · MIN has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO+0.8 →+1.2▲ 0.4#11

MIN−0.3 →+0.7▲ 1.0#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

MIN

#17

Offense

MIN better ▶

#11

Defense

◀ NO better

#14

+0.9 #5

Turnovers

◀ NO better

−0.6 #28

69 plays #3

Pace

◀ NO faster

63 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Even matchup

	NO off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #15	21.1 #17	Even
Yards / play	4.97 #22	5.04 #10	MIN
EPA / play	−0.03 #14	−0.06 #11	Even
Success rate	42% #17	44% #19	Even

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	MIN off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #13	19.0 #7	NO
Yards / play	5.59 #7	4.97 #8	Even
EPA / play	0.00 #11	−0.12 #4	NO
Success rate	43% #14	38% #3	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	5.2 #11	6.3 #20	11.6 #13	4.3 #12	5.8 #16	10.1 #15
MIN allowed	3.3 #7	6.7 #14	10.0 #8	7.3 #32	3.8 #2	11.1 #25

MIN scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	2.6 #29	8.0 #8	10.6 #20	7.3 #3	5.0 #25	12.3 #5
NO allowed	4.1 #11	6.3 #11	10.4 #10	1.8 #3	6.8 #24	8.6 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.