Colts vs Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sun, Nov 12, 2023, 9:30 AM ESTWeek 10 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff46°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

4-5 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

New England Patriots

2-7 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

IND -1

✓ IND W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 16 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 26–25 NE

✓ IND (55%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

Opennot available

CloseIND -1

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseIND -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42.5

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

Opennot available

CloseIND -1

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like IND as a 1-point neutral-site favorite against NE, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: IND won 10–6; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 4 similar games. 16 points stayed under 42.5, as in 2 of 4.

Favorite won

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 52%

Favorite covered

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 42%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.8 against an average line of 2.4; 43.8 points a game (usually 44.3). When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIN vs NO 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	28–25	W	O42
Close	JAX vs DEN 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-1	17–21	L	U40.5
Loose	ATL vs NYJ 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	27–20	W	O46
Loose	TB vs SEA 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	21–16	W	U45

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
IND –LWLW	2-2	50%	—	1-0
NE –LWLL	1-3	25%	—	1-2

Venue/role: IND neutral, as favorite; NE neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND –OOOU	3-1	75%	4-5
NE –UOOU	2-2	50%	2-7

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 32% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 9	4-5 44%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%
NElast 9	2-7 22%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

IND 10–18 NE NE leads · 28 games since 1999 · IND has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−3.9 →−0.6▲ 3.3#17

NE0.0 →−3.3▼ 3.3#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

IND

Longer bar = better

#17

Offense

◀ IND better

#27

#20

Defense

Even

#18

0.0 #13

Turnovers

◀ IND better

−0.6 #29

66 plays #7

Pace

◀ IND faster

61 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Even matchup

	IND off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #7	25.3 #26	IND
Yards / play	5.21 #15	4.98 #9	NE
EPA / play	−0.06 #20	+0.02 #26	IND
Success rate	39% #24	42% #10	NE

When NE has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	NE off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #31	26.9 #30	Even
Yards / play	4.74 #24	5.18 #17	IND
EPA / play	−0.17 #30	−0.04 #15	IND
Success rate	40% #23	43% #17	IND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	5.0 #14	8.6 #7	13.6 #9	4.7 #9	7.2 #8	11.9 #7
NE allowed	5.4 #22	8.8 #29	14.2 #29	4.0 #14	7.1 #25	11.1 #23

NE scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	2.6 #28	4.9 #25	7.4 #27	2.1 #30	5.4 #19	7.6 #28
IND allowed	5.8 #26	8.6 #27	14.3 #30	5.6 #25	6.3 #21	11.9 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.