Patriots @ Giants: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sun, Nov 26, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at New York Giants

Weather at kickoff47°F6 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

New England Patriots

2-8 · Power #29

final

Final

New York Giants

3-8 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

NE -4.5

✓ NYG W

Total

▼ Under · 17 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 24–20 NYG

✗ NE (65%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNE -4.5

Total36

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNE -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close36

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNE -4.5

Total36

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 4.5-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NYG won 10–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 17 points stayed under 36, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.1 against an average line of 3.6; 40.1 points a game (usually 46.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WSH @ NYG 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	7–14	L	U36.5
Close	NYJ @ NYG 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	13–10	P	U34.5
Close	WSH @ NYG 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar total & season form	-6.5	22–7	W	U36.5
Loose	NO @ ATL 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar spread & situation	-4	30–20	W	O40
Loose	ATL @ TEN 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar total & situation	-2.5	23–28	L	O35
Loose	WSH @ HOU 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation	-3	23–10	W	U41
Loose	CHI @ DET 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-3	16–14	L	U41.5
Loose	SF @ CHI 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3.5	33–22	W	O40
Loose	LV @ CHI 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & team ratings	-1.5	12–30	L	O37.5
Loose	CIN @ PIT 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-5	37–30	W	O39.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE LWLLL	1-4	20%	0-2	0-1
NYG WPLLW	3-2-1	60%	1-0-1	3-2-1

Venue/role: NE away, as favorite; NYG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UOOUU	2-3	40%	2-8
NYG UUUOO	2-4	33%	3-8

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 45% of games with totals 33–39 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	2-8 20%	1-4 20%	2-3 40%
NYG	3-7 30%	3-2-1 60%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NE 6–4 NYG NE leads · 10 games since 1999 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE0.0 →−3.2▼ 3.2#27

NYG−9.1 →−5.3▲ 3.8#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

NYG

#27

Offense

◀ NE better

#31

#17

Defense

◀ NE better

#26

−0.6 #30

Turnovers

NYG better ▶

+0.3 #11

62 plays #22

Pace

NYG faster ▶

64 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	14.1 #31	25.9 #28	Even
Yards / play	4.77 #26	5.85 #29	Even
EPA / play	−0.15 #29	−0.01 #21	NYG
Success rate	42% #21	45% #27	NE

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	NYG off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	13.5 #32	23.8 #24	NE
Yards / play	4.13 #31	4.97 #8	NE
EPA / play	−0.22 #31	+0.01 #24	NE
Success rate	37% #31	42% #12	NE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	2.6 #28	4.4 #27	7.0 #30	1.9 #30	5.2 #22	7.1 #28
NYG allowed	5.8 #26	8.9 #28	14.7 #31	6.0 #28	4.9 #8	10.9 #20

NYG scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	1.5 #32	3.6 #32	5.1 #32	3.4 #25	5.1 #23	8.5 #25
NE allowed	5.6 #25	7.9 #22	13.5 #29	3.6 #10	6.7 #22	10.3 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.