Jaguars @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sun, Nov 26, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Houston Texans · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

7-3 · Power #12

▲ winner

Final

Houston Texans

6-4 · Power #13

final

Closing spread

JAX -1

✓ JAX W

Total

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 26–25 HOU

✓ JAX (53%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJAX -1

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJAX -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJAX -1

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 1-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: JAX won 24–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 48, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 41%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.1 against an average line of 1.8; 47.7 points a game (usually 44). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DAL @ MIN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	40–3	W	U48.5
Very close	GB @ MIN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	31–34	L	O47.5
Very close	LAC @ JAX 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	30–31	L	O46.5
Very close	IND @ TEN 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-1	34–17	W	O49
Very close	CLE @ ATL 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-1	20–23	L	U48.5
Very close	LV @ NO 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2	0–24	L	U48.5
Very close	LV @ JAX 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-2	20–27	L	U48
Very close	LAC @ PHI 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	27–24	W	O49.5
Very close	CIN @ LV 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	32–13	W	U51
Very close	LAC @ LV 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	20–27	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX WWWLW	4-1	80%	2-0	3-0
HOU WLLWL	2-3	40%	1-2	2-0

Venue/role: JAX away, as favorite; HOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX OOUUO	3-2	60%	7-3
HOU UUOOU	2-3	40%	6-4

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 44% of games with totals 45–51 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	7-3 70%	4-1 80%	3-2 60%
HOU	6-4 60%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

JAX 16–33 HOU HOU leads · 49 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 24 2023	Houston Texans 37 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 17	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+3.9 →+1.3▼ 2.6#10

HOU−2.2 →+0.7▲ 2.9#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

JAX

Longer bar = better

HOU

#17

Offense

HOU better ▶

#12

#14

Defense

◀ JAX better

#18

+0.3 #9

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #10

65 plays #8

Pace

Even

65 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #11	20.8 #13	Even
Yards / play	5.11 #18	5.34 #22	Even
EPA / play	−0.08 #23	−0.01 #20	Even
Success rate	42% #16	43% #15	Even

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #10	20.4 #11	Even
Yards / play	5.78 #6	5.47 #26	HOU
EPA / play	+0.03 #10	−0.06 #10	Even
Success rate	42% #20	41% #7	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.5 #17	6.6 #17	11.1 #17	5.2 #6	6.7 #10	11.9 #9
HOU allowed	6.2 #29	3.0 #1	9.2 #6	6.5 #29	5.1 #12	11.6 #24

HOU scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.8 #14	7.5 #12	12.3 #11	4.1 #17	7.4 #7	11.5 #10
JAX allowed	2.3 #2	4.3 #4	6.6 #2	6.6 #31	7.2 #27	13.8 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.