Titans @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sun, Nov 19, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Jacksonville Jaguars · Division game

Weather at kickoff74°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

3-6 · Power #27

final

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

6-3 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

JAX -6.5

✓ JAX W

Total

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 20–26 JAX

✓ JAX (72%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJAX -6.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJAX -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJAX -6.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 6.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 34–14; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 40, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.4 against an average line of 6.5; 38.2 points a game (usually 47.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC vs LAR 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	31–10	W	P41
Very close	MIA vs NYG 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	20–9	W	U39.5
Very close	ATL vs ARI 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	20–19	L	U40.5
Very close	JAX vs TEN 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & situation	-6	20–16	L	U40
Very close	SEA vs CHI 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	24–25	L	O41
Very close	PIT vs CHI 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-7	29–27	L	O40
Very close	NO vs CAR 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar season form & rest	-7	18–10	W	U37
Very close	NYG vs IND 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	38–10	W	O38.5
Very close	CLE vs ARI 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	27–0	W	U38.5
Very close	NE vs IND 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-5	26–3	W	U40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN –LWLL	1-3	25%	0-2	1-3
JAX –WWWL	3-1	75%	1-1	2-0

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; JAX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN –UOPU	1-2-1	33%	3-6
JAX –OOUU	2-2	50%	6-3

Went over in Q4. Of 12 earlier overs in games with totals 37–43, 50% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENlast 9	3-6 33%	1-3 25%	1-2-1 33%
JAXlast 9	6-3 67%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TEN 32–23 JAX TEN leads · 55 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−0.8 →−1.9▼ 1.1#23

JAX+3.9 →+0.6▼ 3.3#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

TEN

Longer bar = better

JAX

#25

Offense

JAX better ▶

#19

#20

Defense

JAX better ▶

#14

−0.3 #23

Turnovers

JAX better ▶

+0.1 #12

59 plays #30

Pace

JAX faster ▶

65 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	TEN off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	17.1 #28	21.1 #15	JAX
Yards / play	4.98 #22	5.42 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.07 #22	−0.06 #8	JAX
Success rate	39% #27	41% #8	JAX

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #15	20.0 #10	TEN
Yards / play	5.05 #20	5.38 #23	Even
EPA / play	−0.12 #25	+0.02 #26	Even
Success rate	42% #15	44% #20	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.1 #23	6.3 #18	9.4 #25	4.4 #12	2.9 #30	7.3 #29
JAX allowed	2.6 #3	4.8 #4	7.3 #2	6.6 #30	7.2 #26	13.8 #29

JAX scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.2 #17	6.7 #17	10.9 #18	4.2 #17	6.7 #9	10.9 #14
TEN allowed	3.9 #11	5.4 #6	9.3 #6	4.8 #20	5.9 #15	10.7 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.